Segacs's World I Know

After three ballots, it’s a two-man race: Dion versus Ignatieff. Perhaps surprisingly, Dion is in the lead.

Looks like Damian Penny’s early predictions are surprisingly accurate.

But all now rests on what Bob Rae decides to do, and where he throws his support. If he frees his delegates, it’s hard to predict where they’ll vote. If he chooses to back one candidate or the other, it will lock up the leadership for that person.

We’ll know soon.

Update: Rae has released his delegates. With Dion as the current momentum canadidate, and given the strength of the anyone-but-Ignatieff movement in Liberal circles, I think that Dion will take all in the end… but we won’t know until they vote.

Related posts:

1. It’s Dion
2. Update: Rae drops out
3. The May effect?
4. Dion hangs on
5. Whaddaya mean, anti-Israel?