Pre-election thoughts

10.16.15

Thoughts heading into the weekend before the election:

  • Polls showing a Liberal surge are going to help Trudeau‪‬, as anti-Harper voters get off the fence and hop on the bandwagon of the party they perceive as most likely to beat the Tories.
  • Having said that, recent polls don’t reflect the Dan Gagnier resignation over the Energy East affair. It remains to be seen whether this will put a damper on the Liberals’ results on Monday.
  • Meanwhile, Mulcair continues to take a beating in the Quebec press on the niqab issue. The NDP can expect to lose seats in Quebec on Monday, and hasn’t really shown a strong gain elsewhere in the country.
  • The Bloc may pick up a few more seats, but probably not enough to buoy it out of irrelevance.
  • Elizabeth May will probably win her seat, and no others.
  • The Liberal vote is more inefficient than the Tory vote based on riding distribution, and thanks to recent gerrymandering.
  • We also probably haven’t seen the last of the Tories’ dirty tricks, as it’s likely they’re holding onto some cards to try to sway results on Monday.

Realistic prediction: Liberals will win the popular vote, but Tories will win a narrow minority government. The government will be highly unstable with no opposition parties willing to prop it up but nobody wanting another election anytime soon. Chaos will ensue.

Hopeful prediction: Liberal government, with strong NDP representation to hold the balance of power and force an informal coalition.

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