Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘disengagement’

Benjamin Netanyahu has won the Likud primary with 47% of the vote, beating out rival Silvan Shalom for the leadership of a party that suddenly finds itself in third place.

When Netanyahu visualized the circumstances under which he’d regain leadership of Likud, somehow I don’t think that’s quite what he had in mind.

Still, he will lead a party that is the voice of Israelis who felt betrayed by Sharon’s disengagement plan or who believe that Sharon led Israel down the wrong path. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, they aren’t in the majority. And come March, in all likelihood, he will find himself in a situation that is nominally different but factually familiar: the opposition. Only this time, it will be from without instead of from within.

Meryl has Hamas’s answer to those who dared hope that the Gaza withdrawal would be a step towards peace:

Hamas leaders vowed to continue fighting Israel as tens of thousands cheered and waved the group’s green flags and masked gunmen hoisted assault rifles, rockets and anti-tank missiles.

“We will not rest and will not abandon the path of Jihad and martyrdom as long as one inch of our land remained in the hands of the Jews,” said Raed Saed, a senior Hamas leader in Gaza City, using the Arabic term for holy war.

“We are celebrating our victory in Gaza and now we are headed toward Jerusalem, Nablus, Akko, Haifa, the Galilee and all of Palestine,” he said.

“Sharon, you should know that we will win – the only language spoken will be the language of weapons. We are young people who aspire to die for Allah and for the weapons we are carrying.”

Catch that language? Jerusalem (not “East Jerusalem”), Nabulus, Akko, Haifa, the Galilee and all of Palestine.

For the uninitiated, that means Israel.

I was cautiously optimistic at the start of the pullout plan, figuring that Sharon had a strategy and that this could at the very least break the stalemate and get Israel out of a region it didn’t want in the first place. I have to sadly concede that those opposed to the plan were probably right – not for religious or ideological reasons, but because it set a very dangerous precedent in rewarding terrorism.

Just when the violence was starting to wane, just as the Palestinians were starting to believe that maybe their approach was a mistake, the Gaza pullout handed them a victory to re-energize their ranks and start up the bloodshed all over again.

I’d hoped I was wrong about that. It sadly appears that I was right.

The situation in Gaza post-pullout is pretty much what most rational people predicted, and is a shattering disillusionment for those who’d held out hope that the pullout would jump-start the peace process.

Meryl, of course, is all over the story – here, here, and here are a few recent postings. And Lynn had no illusions to begin with, but as she well knows, there’s no joy in this version of “I told you so”.

The Palestinians have been handed a huge opportunity in Gaza to prove to the world that they’re ready for a state. And of course, this opportuity is being squandered, just like all those that came before it.

Israel will be entrusting the Egyptians with the task of ensuring border security in Gaza:

The Israeli parliament on Wednesday approved a deal to hand control of a buffer zone along the Gaza-Egypt border to Egyptian security forces after Israel completes its pullout from the territory.

The agreement, sanctioning the deployment of 750 Egyptian border police on the Egyptian side of the Gaza frontier to replace Israeli troops stationed in the volatile “Philadelphi Corridor,” passed by a vote of 53-28, the Knesset said.

This deal has been in place for about a month, and you can bet that the Islamic Jihad and Hamas have been busily recruiting, threatening or bribing Egyptian officials in preparation for the opening of the floodgates.

A CBS News column is claiming that the onus is not on the Palestinians to make the next move in the mideast, now that Israel disengaged from Gaza, because settlers are still moving to the West Bank:

For Palestinians, the Gaza pullout is a little like a settler shell game. The settlers have disappeared from one place, only to pop up somewhere else. And Israel still controls Gaza’s land and sea crossings. In the eyes of the armed Palestinians, that’s plenty reason to keep fighting.

Then there’s the “separation fence” the Israelis are building, which has gobbled up huge chunks of Palestinian territory in the West Bank, in the name of security — yet more provocation.

So when Ariel Sharon says to them, “Look what Israel did for peace, now it’s your turn,” the Palestinians are a little stumped. Essentially, they have to convince the militants to lay down their arms without being able to promise to deliver a net gain in land or independence.

Meanwhile, armed Palestinian groups believe that making the cost of staying in Gaza too high with their constant attacks on Israeli settlers and soldiers is what drove the Israelis out. For them, the Gaza pullout proves that violence works.

The sad thing about this analysis is that it’s about to emerge as the Next Big Lie.

Mideast politics is full of these Big Lies. When Israel offered Arafat 99% of what he wanted in Camp David, and instead of accepting it or even making a counter-offer, he walked away and started a war that’s lasted nearly five years and cost thousands of lives, the Big Lie was that Israel wasn’t making much of an offer in the first place. When Israel withdrew from Lebanon, the Big Lie was that Hezbollah was still justified in launching rocket attacks because Israel didn’t pull completely out of the Sheba Farms. When Ariel Sharon made a scheduled – and approved – visit to Har HaBayit in 2000, the Big Lie was that mosques were being attacked, and that this was an excuse to launch a war that had been planned for months. Mohammed Al-Dura. Jenin and the massacre-that-wasn’t. The “Apartheid Wall”. I could go on and on with the Big Lies.

They get accepted as truth because there are just so many people in the world repeating them. Media outlets. Arab countries and leaders. “Activists” and sympathizers. When you consider that Muslims outnumber Jews in the world by a proportion of a thousand to one, and that sooner or later the message being shouted the loudest by the most people comes to be accepted as truth, then it’s easy to understand how these Big Lies get propagated.

So now the “shell game” is about to be the next Big Lie. Oh, the world will say, Israel didn’t really do very much. Sure, the country went through the most painful thing it could possibly imagine, forcibly evacuating fellow citizens from their homes and land. But really, they didn’t do anything because more settlers are moving to the West Bank. So the Palestinians don’t have to disarm; they don’t have to talk peace; they don’t have to take the next step.

No matter what sacrifices Israel makes or what unilateral steps it takes, nothing will be enough. It will all be explained away by the next Big Lie. And Israel’s moves will all be in vain.

Abbas and Sharon are making the usual meaningless statements about “working towards peace” and starting a “new page” in Israeli-Palestinian relations.

In the meantime, Hamas is giving the real picture:

Hamas and Islamic Jihad announced on Monday that they have reached an agreement with the Palestinian Authority according to which the two groups would not be disarmed.

[ . . . ]

“We stressed during the meeting that the Palestinians have the right to continue the resistance [against Israel] and that there would be no attempt to collect weapons from the resistance groups,” he added.

“The weapons of the resistance were founded to defend the Palestinian people and resist the occupation. The Gaza victory was achieved with the weapons of the resistance, which is the only strategy to drive Israel out of the rest of our lands.”

Any questions?

Imshin says we should not avert our eyes. She’s probably right. Israelis – and those of us who consider ourselves in solidarity with Israel – need to be engaged during this painful time of disengagement.

But Meryl describes perfectly how horribly difficult it is:

I have found myself unable to read the stories, or watch the news reports, or even think very much about it, because no matter whether or not you agree with the removal of the settlements, if you have a heart, you cannot but be upset to see people uprooted forcibly from their homes.

I cannot watch Jews fight Jews and remain dry-eyed. I can’t even read about it and not choke up. And I find that I cannot write very much about it, either.

[ . . . ]

Here is what I think is going to happen in the next few months: The terrorist attacks will continue, redoubled, as soon as Mahmoud Abbas feels comfortable enough with doing so. Israeli will not invade Gaza in response; world opinion will prevent her from doing so. The terrorism will move to the West Bank, as the IDF already realizes. Rockets will fly at Israel proper. The world will tell Israel to “show restraint.” The UN will condemn any Israeli actions.

Nothing will change. Nothing. The Bush administration has proven that they believe in the Exception Clause when it comes to condemning terrorism against Jews. I’m not buying this op-ed in the Times; Zev Chafets is an optimist, and he is overlooking the Exception Clause. The EU and the UN are still slaves to Arab oil, Arab money, Arab voting blocs, and their own barely-repressed history of anti-Semitism. They still refuse to fully condemn Hamas and Hizbullah, whose leaders have a new rallying cry, and who insist they are winning the battle with Israel.

Did I say nothing will change? That’s wrong. Israelis will no longer be murdered in the Gaza Strip. But only because they aren’t there.

These days, I find I’m just as pessimistic as Meryl. And equally unable to write about it.

I still don’t have time to properly blog, but I wanted to at least mention some of the newsworthy items in the passing show these days.

Disengagement is depressing. I can barely read the news – from any perspective – because it just gives me a giant headache. The whole issue is so clearly lose-lose that I can hardly work up the energy to take a position. Of course the terrorists are viewing this as a victory and an excuse for more violence. Of course it’s tough on the families who have to uproot. Of course Israel is dangerously close to civil war, as people are pitted against each other in a gut-wrenching emotional issue. And of course it has to happen, now that the die is cast – and maybe it’s the only way to break the stalemate. But there seems to be very little to say that hasn’t been said by many others already.

A plane crash in Greece killed 121 people yesterday. There don’t seem to be any signs of terrorism.

Here’s a new one: a Muslim cleric suspected of terrorism agreed to be deported from the United States. Usually these guys drag the fight against deportation out for years. I wonder what this guy’s in such a rush to get to Pakistan for. I doubt it’s ballroom dancing lessons.

The CBC has locked out most of its unionized workers, because they’re fighting over whether they can hire less full-time people and more contract people. So now, not only are billions of tax dollars going to fund a useless network that also competes for advertising money and shows no programming anyone wants to watch… but it’s also operating without 60% of its staff. Would someone finally yank the cord on the CBC and put it out of its misery?

Regular posting should hopefully resume shortly.

Here’s the quote: [Syria is a] threat to the stability of the region . . . [I have] great concerns about the Syrians. Their psychology cannot be comprehended.”

Was it: a) George W. Bush b) Ariel Sharon? c) Tony Blair? d) Jacques Chirac?

Believe it or not, the answer is d: Jacques Chirac.

Yeah, I was shocked too. For about ten seconds. Then I read the whole article:

The situation in Lebanon and Syria was the focus of the Sharon-Chirac working lunch, which lasted two and a half hours. Sharon asked France to exert its influence in Lebanon, to prevent clashes along the northern border while the disengagement plan is underway. He warned that Iran may push Hezbollah to take action against Israel.

Pandering to a terrorist state trying to get nuclear weapons. Oh, right. That’s the Chirac we know.

And of course there’s more:

Chirac said that Resolution 1559 should be implemented to the letter, but disagreed with Sharon’s approach, saying that Hezbollah plays “a stabilizing role” in Lebanon today. Chirac spoke with pride about the central role France played in the build-up to the elections in Lebanon.

Same old Chirac. Pop quiz over. Regularly scheduled programming resumed.

Scenes like this are sadly and unacceptably almost commonplace in some parts of the world. We’re nearly numb to the news of terrorist attacks in Iraq these days. The scene is horrifyingly familiar to Israelis. But in London, despite the history of IRA attacks, this is not commonplace and it still has the power to shock the world.

A casualty is taken away on a stretcher at London's King Cross station in London (source: Reuters)

The phases will be familiar to people who have gone through it all before. Shock and horror at the news. Frantic checking on everyone we know who may have been in the area to make sure they’re okay. A wave of sadness and sympathy for the victims and their families.

And then, incredible anger at the terrorists and anger at the fact that their brand of terror is being allowed to succeed – at changing the G8 agenda, at getting people to point fingers the wrong way, maybe even at scaring other European countries into surrendering. What they don’t realize is that surrender isn’t an option; sooner or later there is a line that no country can cross, and by the time they reach it, it might be too late.

If the only defense against terrorism is its 100% failure rate, than what does it mean that it has been so incredibly successful as of late? What of the Gaza disengagement – agree or disagree, it is being interpreted by the Palestinian terror groups as a victory. What of Spain’s election of a leftist government that capitulated to the terrorist demands to withdraw troops from Iraq after the Madrid train bombings? What of small victory after small victory that has enabled the terrorists to isolate the US and Israel from the world, get other European countries to back down, and cause fear among millions of people?

Terrorism will contine as long as it keeps attaining victories. Tony Blair is vowing to stay resolute. But what will happen is anyone’s guess.