Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘israeli election’

Looks like it will be an Yisrael Beiteinu-backed Likud government.

One potential monkey wrench: Lieberman made his support of Netanyahu conditional on forming a broad-based coalition. And so far, Livni looks prepared to keep Kadima in opposition.

So, as they say, it ain’t over till Shimon Peres sings.

Speak Hebrew? Think you can fix Israel’s political mess? Try your hand at coalition building with this fun tool.

(Hat tip: Yonah.)

With over 85% of votes counted, Tzipi Livni’s Kadima has a narrow lead over Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in today’s Israeli election.

Netanyahu had a commanding lead in the polls and the election looked like it was going to be a wash, but Livni fought back and now it’s almost too close to call.

Even if Kadima wins, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Livni will be the next Prime Minister. She had trouble forming a coalition government after Olmert resigned last year, and conditions now are even less favourable for Kadima than they were then.

Should be interesting times ahead as the post-election political jockeying begins.

The Israeli blogosphere has been up late following the events as they unfold, of course. Aussie Dave was liveblogging all day. Imshin thinks it’s gonna get ugly. And Allison posts her excellent analysis on Pajamas Media.

In a related story, Meryl Yourish has more on what’s passing for journalism at AP these days.

Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party holds a commanding lead in the polls ahead of next week’s Israeli election, says he wants to form a unity government to deal with “unprecedented challenges”:

That’s election-speak, if anything. The game keeps changing and everyone feels like challenges are “unprecedented”, but a leader with some perspective ought to know that there’s nothing all that new about Israel facing an existential threat.

So far, it looks like Kadima’s reaction amounts to “thanks, but no thanks”. But again, what gets said during a camapign and what happens afterwads aren’t necessarily one and the same.

Benjamin Netanyahu has won the Likud primary with 47% of the vote, beating out rival Silvan Shalom for the leadership of a party that suddenly finds itself in third place.

When Netanyahu visualized the circumstances under which he’d regain leadership of Likud, somehow I don’t think that’s quite what he had in mind.

Still, he will lead a party that is the voice of Israelis who felt betrayed by Sharon’s disengagement plan or who believe that Sharon led Israel down the wrong path. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, they aren’t in the majority. And come March, in all likelihood, he will find himself in a situation that is nominally different but factually familiar: the opposition. Only this time, it will be from without instead of from within.

I know we’re heading into yet another election campaign in Canada… but, as all our elections are, it’s sure to be a real snoozer. So instead, let’s talk about the more interesting election campaign – Israel’s.

Imshin is optimistic, sort of:

There is something uplifting about what has been happening here in recent days. For years everyone has been moaning that we have no leaders. Suddenly we do. Two of them, up against each other.

Sharon and Peretz are both nasty bastards, both sly, corrupt, cynical politicians. Is Peretz any nastier than Sharon? I doubt it. Love them or hate them, the thing is that both are people who get things done, make things happen. Who would have believed the Gaza disengagement would actually happen? You had to be here to realize how absolutely incredible that was. And who would have believed anyone would be able to resurrect the Histadrut? For instance.

Here’s Allison on Shimon Peres:

We need a national referendum on whether it’s time for him to retire.

Here’s Harry’s reaction on what Sharon’s new party may mean for Shinui:

Oh, and Shinui is DONE. The creation of a centrist party without the anti-religious banter and sans a cantankerous leader is the death knell for the secular party.

That’s true, though I still contend that Shinui has been done ever since the night after the last election, when Yasser Arafat openly praised Tommy Lapid.

Finally, we have Isreality giving the ultimate reality check:

“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

The outcome of this spring’s elections will undoubtedly result in another limping coalition of partners tugging each other apart at the seams, with the same old leaders making the same old back room deals.

The only aspect to look forward to actually, is the campaign commercials for the fringe parties like the taxi drivers’ party, the Green Leaf party for legalizing pot, and the sentimental favorite – the battered husbands’ party. Now that’s entertainment.

Fringe parties are probably the only things that will save the Canadian election from mind-numbing dullness as well. At least we have that in common.

A vote by Likud to reject a coalition with Labor to push through Gaza disengagement is being presented as a major setback for Ariel Sharon:

Likud’s Central Committee, its decision-making body, voted by a 58% majority to prevent PM Ariel Sharon from negotiating with the opposition Labor party. By a narrow margin, even Sharon’s modest proposal to allow him to talk with any Zionist party was rejected. The PM vowed to pursue his course and talk with Labor anyway. Most Likud Ministers and Knesset Members supported him.

In his speech, interrupted by frequent catcalls and boos, Sharon attacked the “rebellious and irresponsible” parts of the body that opposed him. “Unfortunately, there is a group within the party that has been plotting against the government since its establishment,” he said. “This is not the behavior expected from members of the ruling party.”

That last bit sounds like Jean Chretien speaking to Paul Martin. But anyway…

This is one of the problems with fighting a war in a democracy. All the decision-making is done in public; all the dirty laundry gets to be dissected by the international press. Arafat, in contrast, can just shoot anyone who opposes him. Much less messy or controversial, I suppose.

Anyway, the opposition is busy talking about how bad this is for Sharon’s government:

A Labor Party spokesman said that the decision would inevitably lead to elections: “The Likud convention decided that it wants to see the Likud refusing peace and destroying any chance of ending violence in the region. If this position is adopted elections will be required.”

But ultimately, the disengagement plan will happen. Ariel Sharon is – politically – the cat with nine lives. Every other week, some media outlet predicts the collapse of his government and the end of his political career. They’ve always been wrong until now. We’ll probably see that repeated again here.

Ariel Sharon is opting for minority government rule rather than trying to launch talks with Labor to form a unity government.

It makes a lot of observers wonder. After all, the disengagement plan that Sharon is trying so hard to push through – over the objections of the religious right that formed part of his coalition – is very similar to the plan that former Labor leader Amram Mitzna campaigned on last election… and that Sharon dismissed as unrealistic. Israeli politics can be funny that way. But still, one might think that Sharon would welcome the opportunity to broaden his power base and earn more support for his plans.

Or maybe not. After all, most analysts agree that in Israel, the left proposes the tough concessions but only the right can get them passed. Post-Oslo, the Israeli public does not trust Labor to look out for their security interests. So if Sharon wants to win support for his plan from the hard-line elements, he can’t be seen getting to cozy with the opposition, I suppose. No doubt this is a calculated gamble.

The good news is that the religious parties will lose some influence in government with the NRP ministers’ resignations. As the religious parties become more fractured, their power base will diminish and they might lose some of their grip over aspects of secular Israeli life. One can hope, anyway.

A Ha’aretz editorial says Sharon’s leadership is over:

From a position of leadership, Sharon yesterday became a prisoner of his ministers, who undermined his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank.

The rebellion of four ministers – Benjamin Netanyahu, Limor Livnat, Silvan Shalom and Danny Naveh – who rejected even Sharon’s watered-down version of the plan left him lonely at the top. Sharon lacks political support for his preferred policy, and any attempt to present a mini-disengagement will lose him the support of the American administration. President George Bush offered extensive promises in advance to Sharon, who is now unable to fulfill his part of the bargain.

[ . . . ]

It seems that in order to take another step, it will be necessary to stake the whole pot and call elections.

Contrast this with the Jerusalem Post, which is calling for a unity government:

That the current political moment is of such magnitude goes without saying. The prospect of settlements being evacuated in general, and in the wake of a unilateral move in particular, makes the likelihood of civil strife high. This will be no time for Israel to be politically fractious. A government led by Ariel Sharon, Yosef (Tommy) Lapid and Shimon Peres will solidly represent the Israeli mainstream, and be difficult to delegitimize as it carries out tough policies.

[ . . . ]

With Labor alongside him not only will Sharon’s plan become easier to execute, it will also make Labor a partner in the unilateral vision, and thus passively concede that its peace-in-our-time rhetoric and policies of the 1990s have ended up in history’s dustbin.

So the rightist Jerusalem Post wants to avoid a far-right government by calling on the left-wing to join under Sharon’s leadership. And the leftist Ha’aretz wants to risk a far-right coalition government by calling for elections at a time when it knows Labor can’t win. Something seems backwards, no?

One thing both editorials have right is that disengagement from Gaza, while supported by a majority of Israelis in some form, won’t be an easy sell politically with such divided factions. In order to really accomplish change, some sort of uniting force will be necessary to bring together diverse political factions.

Meanwhile, Ariel Sharon is the cat with nine lives. He’s been branded as “finished in politics” countless times, and yet he always seems to survive. I don’t think that it’s so easy to dismiss him quite yet. He may appear to be fighting for his career now, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

Meanwhile, while everyone in the rest of the world is focused on terrorism, Arafat, and Israel’s diplomatic skirmish with Syria, the real news in Israel is the latest chapter in the religious versus secular divide:

The cabinet voted to dismantle the Religious Affairs Ministry Wednesday and transfer authority over the rabbinical courts to the Justice Ministry headed by Shinui leader Yosef Lapid, a move that infuriated the National Religious Party and triggered a coalition crisis.

[ . . . ]

Eitam warned after his meeting with the chief Rabbis Wednesday that if the Cabinet’s decision to transfer control of the country’s rabbinical courts to the Justice Ministry were to pass in the Knesset, the National Religious Party would quit the coalition government. “We will not cooperate with Shinui’s secular humanism. This is not a question of jobs; this is a critical debate on the Jewish character of Israel. A government without the NRP may be legal, but it won’t be legitimate,” Eitam said Wednesday evening.

Any step that Israel takes to transfer more power to secular administration is a positive one, in my opinion. But Lapid is such a hated symbol among the large Orthodox population in Israel, that this likely came as a slap in the face to them at a time when unity is more important than division.

The problem is that the Orthodox rabbinate has altogether too much power in Israel – they decide everything from weddings and divorces to what sort of meat Israeli restaurants can buy (even non-kosher ones). And the most upset people are often the Conservative and Reform Jews, who feel slighted.

This division between Orthodox and secular is no small issue in Israel. In many ways, it’s almost a more difficult division than the one between Jews and Arabs, because the religious feel they have a “claim” on the secular Jews and should be encouraging them to live more religiously. This leads to a lot of resentment and conflict, not to mention tug-of-war political grappling. The fallout from today’s decision promises to be significant.