Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘israeli election’

The National Religious Party and Shinui agreed yesterday to join Sharon’s coalition government.

This despite Shinui’s anti-religious stance. Although Shas has so far been excluded from the government, in keeping with Lapid’s promise that Shinui would never join a government that includes Shas. At any rate, it looks like the NRP and Shinui have made a couple of key compromises:

The NRP received assurances that religious education would remain independent and budget cuts for national service for religious women would be repealed.

The coalition guidelines will include an agreement reached between the NRP and Shinui which calls for the Tal Law that grants IDF service deferments to all yeshiva students to be canceled and replaced by a new arrangement. The Large Families Law, under which state support for families increases sharply from the fifth child, will be replaced by a law granting an equal allotment for each child.

The key issue to watch there is the Yeshiva deferment one. This has been in place since 1948, when Ben-Gurion made a concession to a small number of Yeshiva students, exempting them from army service in attempt to preserve the small number of religious scholars from Eastern Europe who survived the Holocaust. It quickly ballooned into a huge loophole, through which virtually all religious men and women are able to defer their army service by declaring themselves too religious to serve. It will be interesting to see what the law is replaced with. I personally suspect it won’t be too different from the status quo, because Sharon would never risk alienating the entire Haredi population of Israel at this point.

Shinui and the NRP give Sharon a very narrow majority. If Am Ehad joins the coalition, it will be a bit more secure. Labor, however, still seems to be holding out, and it’s starting to look like Mitzna may actually stay out of the government. Yes, I know I predicted otherwise, but hey, who says I’m right?

The world media is decrying this as being bad for the peace process, saying that Sharon has formed a right-wing government that opposes peace. The NRP is opposed to Palestinian statehood as a matter of record, but I suspect that won’t matter much, as the parties have agreed to consider President Bush’s “road map” – if only to help the ailing Israeli economy for now.

This article in the Jerusalem Post shows how democracy is a beautiful thing . . . except sometimes at the dinner table.

So who’s celebrating? Well, ironically, not Sharon. He knew he’d be re-elected. He’s not going to celebrate until he figures out how on earth to string together a coalition in this mess.

Amram Mitzna’s not celebrating too hard either. He gambled and opted to compete for votes on the Left instead of in the middle. Bad call, Mitzna. Sure, people like him and he’s charismatic . . . but nobody’s willing to entrust him with the security of the Israeli people any further than they could throw him. Besides, now he’s stuck with a promise not to join Likud in a unity government. I somehow suspect that he’ll be convinced to change his mind on that one in the next couple of weeks.

Sharansky and Sarid were both so disappointed with their parties’ respective performances that they resigned. Oh well, I guess that frees up Sharansky’s schedule a bit and maybe he can even come to Concordia. Yay . . . another riot to look forward to! As for Sarid, he had to realize that there’s only so many members of Peace Now who he can convince to come out and vote. And with Mitzna looking to the far left instead of to Labor’s traditionally centrist base for votes, Meretz lost a lot of ground.

The religious parties can’t be celebrating too hard either. Actually if there’s one bit of good news here, it’s the decline of seats for the ultra-religious parties. Shas lost a good amount of support. This is a bit strange, considering demographics. On the other hand, what was lost in sheer number may be gained in terms of leverage for the religious bloc, since if Sharon can’t convince Mitzna or Lapid to join a unity coalition, he’ll be forced to align himself with the religious parties to form a government. And they’ll demand their pound of flesh in return for support.

Tommy Lapid should be ecstatic with the rise in support for Shinui . . . but an offhand comment by Arafat about meeting with him and possibly having a chance for talks probably didn’t exactly make Lapid’s day. A compliment by Arafat is basically a kiss of death in Israeli politics, and it’s virtually guaranteed that Lapid’s popularity will suffer as a result.

Actually, the only one who should be thrilled here is Arafat.

Okay, I know that sounds crazy. Arafat has to say that he hates Likud and loves Labor. He even made a show of extending an olive branch to Sharon, knowing full well that there was no risk Sharon would actually accept, so it was a cost-free PR move.

But secretly this is the best possible outcome for Arafat. Because if a dovish government was voted in, and wanted to initiate talks, Arafat would have to bargain and make concessions and try to stop the terror. And he’s not ready to do that. So Likud being in power gives him an excuse to continue his hard line. In private, Arafat did a little victory dance last night.

The fact that Hamas regards Sharon’s re-election as a “blessing” should be enough to drive that point home.

Ironically, the only politician in Israel right now who potentially COULD give the Palestinians anything is Sharon. Mitzna couldn’t. Because the only way a deal will ever be negotiated is if the Israeli people are convinced that their security is a foremost concern. They don’t trust Mitzna to look out for their interests above the interests of the Palestinians. But they do trust Sharon.

What, if anything, can we learn from the election? Well, it’s simple: Just look at the number of parties compared to the number of people. The old joke about two Israelis having three opinions must have at least some truth to it.

Montreal/Israel in Brief sent a special election mailing that contained this handy table summarizing the election results:

While some of the party summaries are not entirely accurate, or are oversimplifications, this does give a bit of an overview of what the election results may mean for Israel.

According to exit polls, Likud is estimated to have won 34 seats in Knesset in today’s election, with Labor in second place at 18 seats. Shinui is in third place with 16 seats.

More definitive results will probably take a few hours, as polls are closing any minute now and ballots need to be counted. But the Likud win is fairly predictable, and the key question may not be answered for days or even weeks: who will join Likud in a coalition government. Will Sharon be able to convince Mitzna to reverse his position and bring Labor into a unity government with Likud? Will he be forced to look to the religious parties or the far right for support? This is what will truly determine the character of the government and the policies on key issues.

Update: With over 90% of the vote counted, the tally is Likud with 37 seats, Labor with 19 seats, and Shinui with 15 seats. Other notable parties are the ultra-religious Shas party with 11 seats, and the leftist Meretz party with 7.

Shinui leader Tommy Lapid re-stated his desire to join a unity government with Sharon, but only if religious parties are excluded from such a coalition. Mitzna still hasn’t wavered on his promise not to join a Likud coalition, although predictions are that he may change his mind in the coming weeks.

With one day left (less, actually, with the time difference) until Israelis go to the polls, if you’re still not sure what other parties exist besides Likud and Labor, now’s a good time to find out. Or, if you’re seasoned on the differences between Shas, Meretz, Yisrael B’Aliyah, and the National Union party, then you’ll probably be looking for minute-to-minute details as results start to come in. Check out the following sites:

• Israelvotes.com is a site specifically for non-Israelis. With the latest issues, headlines, profiles of the major parties, and an area where you can place a “mock” vote.
• The Jerusalem Post Special Section has in-depth election coverage.
• Not to be outdone, Ha’aretz also offers an in-depth section. Similar headlines, vastly divergeant editorials.
• If you read Hebrew, check out the online special election coverage from Ma’ariv and Yediot Ahronot (you’ll have to register for the latter).
• WUJS site explaining the Israeli electoral system, the parties, and a timetable, all in an easily-digestable overview format.

These are just a few places to get info.

While Sharon is virtually guaranteed a return to power, the real question will be which smaller parties garner more votes, and who will form a ruling coalition. The world will be watching closely for the results and their possible implications.

Israel is going to the polls in 4 days, and the election has been fraught with scandals, mud-slinging, and all the dirty campaign tricks in the book . . . but guess what, it’s still an election! In other words, the citizens get to choose between different candidates, and their vote counts! Note that it’s the only country in the Middle East where this is at all possible.

Not an Israeli? Want to learn about Israeli democracy anyway? Register your mock vote at israelvotes2003.com.

Two Israeli Arabs make Meretz top 10 in the Israeli primaries.

To the next pro-Palestinian who accuses Israel of racism, when was the last time that Jews were allowed to be elected to government in any Arabic country? Or, for that matter, homosexuals? Or – in the case of most of those countries – when was the last time anyone was allowed to vote in a democratic election at all? (And no, Saddam Hussein’s kind of “vote” doesn’t qualify.)

Those who would accuse Israel of being undemocratic ought to look in the mirror.

The European Union is meddling in Israel’s elections. According to the Jerusalem Post:

Palestinian newspapers are full of paid advertisements calling for an end to terrorist attacks inside Israel in order to help Mitzna and his Labor Party. Palestinian sources say Dr. Sari Nusseibeh, the PLO’s representative in Jerusalem, is behind the advertisements. The European Union, they add, is financing the campaign.

The surprise isn’t so much that the Palestinian lobby wants a Labour victory. With a softer government, more prone to concessions, they probably figure they can get more out of Israel. But what’s the EU doing backing the ads?

And notice what else is obvious by reading between the lines. The ads are calling upon people to end terror attacks inside Israel – their way of saying that terror attacks in the Disputed Territories may still continue against innocent civilians. Plus, the call for a moratorium on attacks in the leadup to an election implies that they can resume once the election is over. Not to mention that it’s blazingly obvious that terror is being sanctioned as a political weapon.

If the EU wants to intervene to end terrorism, then it should do it unequivocally. Support a campaign to end terror attacks, period. Instead, the EU is attempting to manipulate the Israeli election so as to elect a leader it feels woud be more pliable to Europe’s demands. I doubt the Israeli people will listen, as polls show Likud leading by a landslide margin. Still, the EU has no business getting involved.

Sounds ludicrous, I know. But, according to strategic consultant Kalman Gayer (as reported in Ha’aretz), Yasser Arafat wanted a Likud Prime Minister to win in 2001, and wants one to win again in 2002:

On the eve of the 2001 elections, strategic consultant Kalman Gayer reached the conclusion that “Arafat prefers a leader from the Likud and not from Labor to head the Israeli government.” His analysis was based on three strategically important events that occurred in swift succession: In May 2000 the Barak government decided on a unilateral pullout from southern Lebanon; two months later, the Camp David summit was held, and failed; and two months after that, on September 29, the intifada began.

Arafat reached the conclusion that he would achieve his political goals by means of terrorism, Gayer wrote. The escalation in terrorism and the suicide bombing attacks worked in Sharon’s favor.

When you think about it, it makes a strange kind of sense. Arafat was getting too close to the point where he would have to either accept a peace deal, or turn down something eminently reasonable. The next step at Camp David in 2000 with Ehud Barak was going to necessitate a willingness on Arafat’s part to make some concessions and to accept the premise of statehood in exchange for peace. But he couldn’t do it. He was too much of a coward, and he realized that his people were not ready to accept it. Things were moving too fast, and Arafat saw them spinning out of control – if he signed a peace treaty he’d be an international hero but a traitor in the Muslim world, and that wasn’t the legacy he wanted. Hence the strategic decision to put a grinding halt to the peace process and start a wave of terror and violence that has cost far too many hundreds of lives so far.

But Arafat also knew that, faced with an Israeli leadership willing to make major concessions for peace, the Palestinian side would look bad for turning down these concessions. He needed a scapegoat. He needed an Israeli leader he could villanize. Someone who he could blame for all of the violence, and who the international community would readily see as a hard-line extremist. He needed a Likud Prime Minister. Preferably one with as hard-line a reputation as possible.

Ariel Sharon has been Arafat’s dream come true.

So why, then, is he still so popular amongst Israelis? Why did they just vote him back in as leader of the Likud party (effectively giving him another mandate as Prime Minister)? Why, when everything in Israel is a disaster is Sharon enjoying unprecedented popularity?

This is what the Ha’aretz article attempts to explain. It’s an interesting read. Check it out.