Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘jean charest’

After Monday, if the polls hold, we could have a newly-minted minority government here in Quebec, alongside the existing federal minority government.

As far as I’m concerned, minority governments are a good thing. The less a government is able to do while in power, the better.

And, memo to Jean Charest: I’m voting for you, but I’m still waiting for my tax cut.

Bribery money for Quebec, tokens to the environmentalists, money for families and small business incentives were some of the highlights of today’s spend-happy, tax-cuts-devoid federal budget, announced by Tory Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

The Bloc Quebecois banded together with the Tories to avoid a government collapse. But most people don’t believe this minority government will last more than a few months longer. A friend of mine was just hired by Elections Canada, so if you’re the betting type, you might want to put your money on spring or summer.

All that the Tories have managed to do with this budget is to legitimatize the Quebecois claim of a “fiscal imbalance” and to make an attempt at social engineering. The Tories seem to have forgotten their promises to balance the budget, cut taxes and grow the economy, preferring to tell people that they should drive greener cars, get married, have more babies, and own businesses that don’t grow too big. From a financial management perspective, based on initial impressions, I’d give it a D.

The key question is, will the extra $2.3 billion be enough to elect Jean Charest next week?

Looks like we’re going to be heading to the polls on March 26th, as Charest has apparently decided to play the timing card for all it is worth and take advantage of a bump in the polls for the Liberals against a PQ that – under André Boisclair – seems to have lost its way.

Nevertheless, this won’t be an easy campaign for Charest to win. The Liberals start every campaign with a built-in handicap due to riding distribution, and Charest has never been exactly loved as a premier; his temporary popularity surge is mainly due to the unpopularity of rival Boisclair. Of course, this also means that Boisclair has the lead in the expectations game for the moment, since Charest has a reputation as a strong campaigner, and expectations pretty much couldn’t be any lower for Bosiclair right now if he were a slug.

If Charest wins a second term, Boisclair is sure to be replaced. Under new leadership, the PQ will surely regroup and rebuild, using a likely Federal election in the next year or so to help increase support for sovereignty and lay the groundwork for a decisive election victory in five years followed by a snap referendum. Of course, that’s a long way away, which makes it highly unpredictable.

On the other hand, if Boisclair wins, it will likely be with a weak finish and a murky mandate for sovereignty. Under those circumstances, he may not even call a referendum. Even if he takes a chance and calls one, in today’s political climate, it’s highly unlikely to pass. Ironically, a PQ victory may actually help give another blow to Quebec nationalism, which might be the best-case scenario.

(On the other hand, we’d have André Boisclair as our premier).

Too many ifs at this point. But the gloves are about to come off, so stay tuned for the body blows and the knockout punches. It’s game time.

The latest summer fluff exercise from the Montreal Gazette took the form of a survey about Montreal, which, by design, generated the sort of stereotypical answers you might expect from a Montreal of perhaps 20 years ago. I mean, who would really elect Leonard Cohen mayor? Nobody, except that even less people would choose the other three options. According to the survey, we love Old Montreal and hate potholes (duh) and we prefer smoked meat to poutine or Orange Julep (well, some of us, I suppose).

The Gazette may try, but it’s still got nothing on the Mirror’s Best of Montreal. After all, who can resist lines like “here’s to the Big O, finally paid off 30 years after a man had a baby.” And it says a lot that in the Montrealer closest to hell category, Karla Homolka was beaten out by Gerald Tremblay AND Jean Charest. (The latter is particularly ironic in light of this).

A new poll shows a big drop in support for sovereignty in the wake of the federal election:

The CROP poll for the La Presse newspaper showed only 34 percent of Quebecers would vote “yes” in a referendum on whether to split from the rest of Canada, down steeply from 43 percent before last week’s federal election. The number who would vote “no” rose to 58 percent from 49 percent.

The newspaper linked the drop in support for separatism to the election result. The Conservatives beat the Liberals, who had been badly hurt by a corruption scandal in Quebec which damaged the image of federalism in the province.

The Conservatives promised to be more sensitive to Quebec’s demands for more freedom inside Canada. They won 10 of the provinces’ 75 seats, up from none before the election.

That’s all very well and good right now. But the Tories haven’t even taken office yet. Just wait until they have a chance to break those promises. By the time the next provincial election rolls around, I suspect sovereignty support will be up again.

I think Charest should call a referendum immediately, with a question phrased such that a “no” vote would put the matter to rest for another, say, 50 years. Such a strategy would catch the separatists off guard and take advantage of the timing quite nicely. Not to mention being a big waste of time and money. But hey, that’ll happen anyway, right? So why not head it off at the pass?

Update 02/02: CROP now says the polling numbers were wrong; it should’ve said that 37% of people would vote “yes” and 55% would vote no. CROP apologized and blamed “data compilation error” for the incorrect figures. This still indicates a drop in support for sovereignty, albeit a smaller one.

Jean Charest is invoking the r-word threat to try to bolster his fledging numbers, even though a provincial election is at least a year away and more likely to be two years off:

The possibility of another referendum on independence will help persuade Quebecers to re-elect the provincial Liberals, says Premier Jean Charest.

“In proposing to deeply divide Quebec society, to plunge us back into a referendum fight that will profoundly divide us and create conflicts, it’s an invitation that Quebecers will refuse,” Charest told The Canadian Press in a year-end interview.

Charest is also already using the cocaine card against Boisclair… something usually reserved for a campaign dogfight. The thing is, Charest’s government is about as unpopular as it is possible to be, and these are Charest’s only cards. With the Bloc set to virtually sweep Quebec on the federal scene and support for soveriengty on the rise, is Charest conceding the game before it even begins?

Our likely next Premier of Quebec is 39-year-old Andre Boisclair, who beat out rivals including Pauline Marois for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois, despite the media attention given to his past cocaine use:

Boisclair faces high expectations. Charest has been stuck at staggering levels of unpopularity since shortly after coming to power in 2003. The PQ expects to beat the Liberals and snap Quebec’s 35-year tradition of electing governments to two terms.

Considered a relatively soft sovereigntist and a right-winger in a party of progressives, Boisclair must unite a party whose hawkish elements have taken down Bernard Landry, Bouchard and even Rene Levesque for showing hesitation on independence.

This isn’t good news for federalists. Boisclair, despite his battle to get elected, is just the kind of young, charismatic leader that can recruite “soft nationalists” and increase support for sovereignty. It will remain to be seen what changes he brings to the PQ platform, but one thing’s for sure: he has an excellent chance of steamrolling to victory in the next provincial election.

“It’s ten years later and still I haven’t a clue” – Collective Soul.

It’s ten years after the last referendum.

The PQ, energized by several years in opposition, is electing new leadership and is gearing up for a post-election victory referendum. We could be less than two years away from the next battle to save Canada.

Where the hell are all the federalists?

The sovereignty movement is ready. Student groups, unions, youth groups, political groups, artists and musicians and businesspeople and rabble-rousers and just about everyone else on the separatist side are organizing. They’re fundraising. They’re unifying. They’re strategizing. They’re recruiting volunteers and getting ready for the fight.

And on the federalist side? Well, we have Michaelle Jean, our new Governer-General, who seems 99% separatist anyway. Besides, nobody cares about her, unless they’re trying to use her to discredit the Canadian government.

The point is, there’s nobody left to fight. There are less Jean Charest fans in Quebec than there are Korn fans in a nursing home. The Federal government is weakened, devoid of any true leadership, and handcuffed thanks to the Sponsorship Scandal.

Grassroots organizations such as Alliance Quebec are so destroyed as to be nonexistent. Only a dozen people showed up to a federalist “rally” downtown last week to commemorate the massive 1995 unity rally that many say saved Canada at the eleventh hour.

I did a Google search looking for websites, citizens’ groups, hell, even a weekly Federalist poker game. Nothing. Nada. Zip. The few links I did find were woefully out of date and mostly defunct. Even the Quebec Liberal Party can’t be bothered to spend two words on federalism on its website (though they were sure to remind us to turn our clocks back this weekend).

And outside of Quebec? The situation is even bleaker. An alarmingly high percentage of Canadians have a “good riddance” sentiment toward Quebec. If they held another unity rally, would anyone come?

It seems incredible to think that only a couple of years ago, we thought Quebec had moved past sovereignty, that it was no longer a “big deal”, and that the threat of another referendum was as laughable as the threat of a hurricane coming to wipe out half of New Orleans. Well, we all know how that turned out.

See, the thing is, I’m not content to sit back and watch my country face the brink of destruction yet again. I value it too much. I happen to think that being Canadian is a pretty wonderful thing… and that keeping this country together is worth fighting for. And if I’m right, there are an awful lot of people out there who feel the same way.

We need initiatives. We need to get organized. We need ideas. And I don’t know about you, but I don’t exactly trust Charest, or whoever his successor will be, to take care of it all for us. I’m thinking it’s time for us ordinary Canadian federalists to get up and do something.

So, at risk of sounding like Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off… “Anyone? Anyone?”

If you’re a federalist and you’re proud of it, clap your hands. Better yet, post a comment here if you want to get involved. Post your ideas. And watch this site for news in the coming days.

It’s the SWIK No Campaign, to be launched right here, real soon. Keep it locked to this station.

The Parti Quebecois leadership race is garnering surprisingly little media attention, considering that whoever wins is almost certain to be our next premier – Charest’s numbers are in the toilet and another long season of union striking is set to begin – and this person has a fair shot at leading the Yes side of a subsequent referendum to victory. Even the news that a candidate was arrested for drunk driving and may drop out of the race barely registers an eyeblink.

Why? Simple. None of the candidates for PQ leader has any more personality than a toadstool.

Andre Boisclair? Pauline Marois? Louis Bernard? These people make Bernard Landry look like Lucien Bouchard.

The “old guard” PQ has been said to be making its last-ditch stand for years now. But instead of new ideas and dynamic energy, all we’re seeing are the same hard-line policy proposals, anti-English rhetoric, choruses of “Blame Canada”, and tired leftist slogans from the same group of PQ leaders.

Of course, people will probably pay more attention as the November 15th vote approaches. But to most Quebecers – especially those on the other side – the leadership race is a bunch of same old, same old.

Mayor Gerald Tremblay is promising $10 billion to fix the infrastructure and drainage systems in Montreal, after yesterday’s flooding:

Montreal Mayor Gerald Tremblay called the sudden downpour of rain an “act of God.” But he spoke Wednesday about the need for the city to take steps to ensure such acts don’t end up causing headaches for residents every time they occur.

“We can’t correct a system that has been in place 50-60 years ago and that has to be revised for the 21st century,” said Montreal Mayor Gerald Tremblay.

“That’s why we have to invest billions of dollars.”

Tremblay has promised to devote $10 billion over the next 20 years to replace the system, and he has the full support of Quebec Premier Jean Charest.

Let’s put aside the issue of whether newer is better, in light of the fact that one of the worst spots is the brand-new L’Acadie interchange, just completed this year after millions of dollars of taxpayer money were spent. Our system isn’t bad because it’s old; it’s bad because it’s bad. Montreal has lousy roads, legendary potholes, poorly-maintained pipes and water mains that have a habit of bursting in the wintertime. This isn’t new and it’s not going away anytime soon.

These are empty promises for Tremblay to make. Today, he’s placating angry people who have water damage in their basements or who got stuck on flooding highways yesterday. And by the time he actually has to spend a dime, someone else will be in office – both his office and Charest’s. They’ll have other spending priorities, like referendums or language police. And we’ll all forget about it… until the next flood.