Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘liberal party’

No, not a merger, just some limited cooperation.

The deal between the Liberals and the Green Party that will see the Libs step back so that Elizabeth May can compete seriously for a seat, is, on the surface, a smart move for both parties. The Liberals have made it clear that, under Dion’s leadership, the environment is their #1 issue. The Greens have always made the environment their #1 issue. So they’re competing for the same pool of voters, and that pool is getting bigger every day as climate change has gradually shifted from being a “polls well but irrelevant on voting day” issue to an issue that can actually affect election results.

But will it backfire? If the Libs move left, will that just open up more space for the Conservatives to make gains in the middle? Conversely, it was arguably the Green Party that – despite a lack of elected MPs – elevated the environment to such a key voting issue in the first place.

The Liberal Party can’t afford to become a one-issue party, even if it is tempting for them to spend the entire next election campaign attacking the Harper government on its environmental record. (The ads are already in the can, I hear). That’s what fringe parties are useful for; bringing single issues to the forefront. But both parties that can govern – the Libs and the Tories – need to campaign on a range of issues representing the broad spectrum of governmental responsibilities. Anything less simply isn’t fair to Canadians.

He’s been denying it with lessening intensity each year, and now, as most people assumed he eventually would, Justin Trudeau will run for the Liberals in the next federal election:

Trudeau will run in the Montreal constituency of Papineau, currently held by the separatist Bloc Quebecois. Trudeau, like his father, opposes those who want independence for the French-speaking province of Quebec.

Liberal leader Stephane Dion welcomed Trudeau’s announcement, telling reporters in Montreal that “I’m very impressed by the courage of this young man.”

His public appearances with Dion during the leadership campaign make the timing of this announcement logical. Trudeau and Dion share the same pet issue – the environment – and Trudeau’s public profile will be a welcome boost for Dion in the next election.

Pierre Trudeau was one of the most loved – and hated – Canadian Prime Ministers in history. He was divisive, but he was a larger-than-life legend. Regardless of your opinion of Pierre Trudeau’s place in Canadian history, it will be very difficult for Justin to carve out his own persona away from his father’s shadow. At least Justin has his own credentials and issues on which to run. And he has good taste in music, too – at least, judging by his guest appearances on CHOM when Terry DiMonte lets him plug in his ipod.

As former Prime Ministers’ kids go, Justin Trudeau is probably the most qualified for this job. Certainly more so than Ben Mulroney. So before we bemoan the fact that we’re apparently adopting familial political dynasties in Canada now, à la Bushes, let’s just consider that it could have been much worse.

The Liberals’ post-convention surge in support is coming largely from the left, according to a new EKOS poll:

The EKOS poll, which surveyed 1,022 voters on Tuesday and Wednesday and is considered accurate to 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20, showed the Liberals picking up support mainly at the expense of the left-leaning New Democratic Party.

The New Democrats were at 10.2 percent in the poll, well below the 17.5 percent they picked up in the January election.

The Conservatives have dropped 3 percentage points since January’s election, but the NDP has dropped over 7, demonstrating that the Liberals are primarily making inroads on the left, not in the middle.

Needless to say, this is not a happy development. With the Liberals moving leftward, there’s nobody left fighting for a centrist vision for the country. How long can it be, I wonder, before we start hearing calls to “unite the left” and move to a two-party system like in the United States?

Interestingly enough, support for the Green Party is actually up, indicating that the attention being called to environmental issues is actually outweighing any support that the Liberals under Dion’s leadership (and that of his dog, Kyoto) might be shaving from that camp.

After Stephane Dion’s “surprise” win, the media and the opposition have been scrambling to make up for lost time by putting him immediately under a microscope.

They’re questioning his loyalty to Canada given his dual French citizenship, his commitment to centrist politics given his left-leaning tendencies, his ability to win support in Quebec given his long history of defending federalism and attacking sovereignty. (If you noticed that the first and third points seem a bit contradictory, you’re not alone).

We’re in that brief wide-open period in politics, when critics try on all sorts of different avenues of attack on a new leader, in attempt to find the ones that will stick the most. But this phase won’t last long. It can’t. The message is too diluted. Sooner or later, they’ll need to come up with a catchphrase, a means of attacking Dion that is equivalent to the Harper-is-Bush attacks heading in the other direction.

I give it about a week.

Dion’s overtime win against Ignatieff foreshadowed the Habs’ overtime win against the Leafs.

Eat your heart out, Toronto!

Stéphane Dion is the new Liberal leader and is fairly likely to be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Despite myself, I kind of like Dion, even if he doesn’t have as fun a nickname as Michael “Iggy Pop” Ignatieff.

The quote of the day probably comes from Pauline:

Much is being made of Stephane Dion’s being *everybody’s second choice*. While that is mathematically a good thing, it doesn’t resound well for the future federal election campaign. I can see the bumper stickers now.

I think that Dion has a history as an impassioned defender of Canadian unity, which is good, and could certainly be said to deserve this much more than Ignatieff, in terms of his having paid his dues to the party.

But, like Pauline, I too am a bit uneasy at his foreign policy stances. He’s come out in opposition to the Canadian military role in Afghanistan, and his friendship stance with Israel has been questionable, particularly during the summer’s Lebanon war when he made some worrying statements. Nothing much worse than the rest of the Liberal candidates, really, but a far cry from the staunch friendship I would hope to see from the leadership of this country. Now that he is the leader, he will of course be called upon to clarify some of his stances, but we’ll have to see where he goes with this.

The next campaign is a lock to be about the environment now, thanks to Dion’s impassioned position on the Kyoto accord. And the great losers in the next election could be the Green Party if Dion successfully picks up support from that camp.

Final thought: the Liberal party – or any party for that matter – will think long and hard before holding another leadership convention in Montreal during ice storm season.

After three ballots, it’s a two-man race: Dion versus Ignatieff. Perhaps surprisingly, Dion is in the lead.

Looks like Damian Penny’s early predictions are surprisingly accurate.

But all now rests on what Bob Rae decides to do, and where he throws his support. If he frees his delegates, it’s hard to predict where they’ll vote. If he chooses to back one candidate or the other, it will lock up the leadership for that person.

We’ll know soon.

Update: Rae has released his delegates. With Dion as the current momentum canadidate, and given the strength of the anyone-but-Ignatieff movement in Liberal circles, I think that Dion will take all in the end… but we won’t know until they vote.

Liberal leadership candidates are falling all over each other to deny Harper’s accusation that they’re anti-Israel:

Bob Rae, Ignatieff’s chief rival, likened Harper’s comment to being accused of a hate crime, while Gerard Kennedy said Harper had surrendered his ability to act as prime minister for partisan purposes.

“I think that the prime minister’s comments were shameful,” Rae said. “This goes beyond the usual give-and-take of partisan life. It’s an appalling statement.”

He noted his own wife and children are Jewish and he’s travelled often to the Middle East.

Yesterday, Ignatieff insisted he remains a supporter of Israel.

“It is disgraceful that the prime minister is playing crass politics with the issue of the Middle East,” he said.

“The Liberal Party has always been a friend of Israel, and I will always stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and the Canadian Jewish community to defend

Israel’s right to respond when it is attacked by terrorists or when its neighbours wrongfully deny its right to exist.”

Kennedy echoed the concerns. “I think he (Harper) has given up his sworn responsibilities as prime minister to play for partisan advantage, and I think it is highly unfortunate,” he said.

Kennedy described himself as “resolutely a friend of Israel” but also “a friend of Lebanon.”

Stephane Dion said: “I feel insulted by my prime minister.”

Sure, the Libs are seeing this as a way to try to attack Harper. But personally, I find it refreshing that, regardless of their actual individual positions, all the Liberal candidates seem to feel that it’s politically expedient to come across as being supporters of Israel. In a time when being anti-Israel is more and more “in”, it’s nice to see that the potential next leaders of our country still recognize that it’s “out”. In other words, it’s a relief to see that being perceived as being “anti-Israel” in this country is still bad PR.

Even as they attack Harper for being too pro-Israel and try to spin this into a political point for the Liberals, the leadership candidates seem to understand that they have to prove – or at least claim – to be friends of Israel in order to win the race. Cynical as this may be, it could be a lot worse; they could be trying to prove that they’re the most anti-Israel. (Of course, we’re talking about the Liberals here, not the NDP…)

Pieter at Peaktalk links to the latest news from the UK, where Tony Blair is fending off the leadership challenge from Gordon Brown as long as he can manage it.

Pieter’s not impressed and, as he rightly points out, the situation mirrors that of the Canadian Liberals a little too closely:

Many have pointed to the analogy with Canada where a defiant and successful ten-year stint in office was not sufficient for Jean Chrétien to ward off the coup by his former finance minister, Paul Martin. What is telling is that Martin’s successful attempt to dislodge Chrétien – who like Blair had long outlived his popularity – was not based on any justifiable policy difference or other quantifiable ideological rift, but on the simple logic that it was Martin’s turn. Not the greatest rationale for seeking the highest office in the land, and we have all witnessed the incredible mess that ensued as it became painfully clear that the absence of any sound content turned Martin’s tenure at Sussex Drive into an utterly forgettable one. It was a power grab for power’s sake, nothing more and nothing less.

It is too early to tell whether Brown’s move into Downing Street will yield the same sorry spectacle, but given the relatively late stage of Labour’s tenure and the strength of a resurgent conservative opposition, it may not be a very pretty one.

What is it with these finance ministers and their sense of entitlement, anyway?

Since I’ve never missed an opportunity to quote the West Wing, why start now? Here’s a quote from season four, shortly after Bartlet is re-elected for his second term, when Josh finds out that Vice-President Hoynes is already lining up precinct captains for the next election:

Josh: We got [Hoynes] on the ticket by convincing him it’s not his turn. We kept him out of the center ring ’cause it wasn’t his turn, and now…

Toby: There aren’t any turns.

When did Canada, the US or the UK turn into Cuba or North Korea? We’ve got politicians getting elected because of who their fathers were (*ahem* Dubya), politicians assuming it’s their “turn”, and power being handed over as though it was someone’s to hand.

Memo to the British Labour Party: Pieter’s right. The Canadian Liberals haven’t recovered from the Chrétien-Martin fiasco, and surely there’s a warning in there somewhere for you as well.

Just announced during his concession speech, Paul Martin is stepping down as party leader.

No surprise there.