Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘mahmoud abbas’

So much for the cease-fire:

Israel cancelled a meeting with Palestinian negotiators on Thursday following a mortar attack on a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian official said.

Ha’aretz reports that Abbas fired his security commanders in response to the mortar attacks:

Palestinian Cabinet Secretary Hassan Abu Libdeh said Abbas took “punitive measures against officers who did not undertake their responsibilities, which led to the latest developments in Gaza,” dismissing several commanders and accepting the resignations of others.

“These are very dangerous developments, and they violate the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority,” Abu Libdeh said. “No one can continue with these violations.

Excuse me but, what does Abbas expect? Most of his so-called “security forces” are terrorists or terrorist wannabes, and he’s already made it clear that he has no intention of cracking down on terrorism. Either Abbas is incredibly naive or – more likely – expected this all along and is welcoming the excuse to avoid the bargaining table.

Opportunity for peace? Yeah, sure. As Allison says, it’s more like Groundhog Day:

Over the past four years, we’ve been burned and we’ve been hurt. We’ve tried to believe in ceasefires and been disappointed. And while it did us good to see what happened in Sharm el-Sheikh, it’s going to take more than fancy speeches to make us believe we are finally headed towards a real peace.

When it comes to the Mideast, unfortunately the lesson is that if you never expect anything, you’ll never be disappointed.

This AP report of today’s cease-fire declaration between Israel and the Palestinians is, like most reporting on the issue, optimistic.

Reading between the lines, though, we see the telling of an entirely different story. For example, the article claims that the “sides are moving quickly”. Let’s see what each side has done so far:

“Today, in my meeting with chairman Abbas, we agreed that all Palestinians will stop all acts of violence against all Israelis everywhere, and, at the same time, Israel will cease all its military activity against all Palestinians everywhere,” he said.

Yay, no more violence. But…

But the Palestinian militant group Hamas immediately called the deal into question. The group’s representative in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, told The Associated Press it would not be bound by the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire declarations.

So in other words, the terrorists will continue their attacks, and Abbas will continue Arafat’s tradition of claiming to have no control over them and nothing to do with them. Meanwhile, Israel will have tied its hands in being able to respond.

Moving on…

In signs the two sides are working quickly, Palestinian negotiator Hassan Abu Libdeh said the leaders agreed that 500 Palestinian prisoners would be freed immediately by Israel, to be followed by 400 more at a later stage.

So Israel is sending more terrorists back on the streets, freeing them to kill again. What are the Palestinians doing in return?

Meanwhile, in Jerusalem, a key parliamentary committee narrowly approved a bill that would allow Mr. Sharon to carry out his planned pullout from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank in the summer. The vote passed 10-9 on a subject that has split the party and angered one of its main constituencies — settlers and their supporters.

Nope, that’s another move by Israel. A biggie. Still searching for a Palestinian concession here.

During the summit, Mr. Sharon also invited Mr. Abbas to visit him at his ranch in southern Israel and Abbas accepted, according to a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official, Gideon Meir. Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath said that meeting would take place soon.

Nice gesture. Maybe they can go snorkeling together. But I’m not sure how this amounts to any kind of Palestinian concession.

Gissin said that as part of Israel’s halting of military operations, it would stop its controversial assassinations of wanted Palestinians, as long as the Palestinians kept militants under control.

Another concession from Israel. Where are the Palestinian confidence-building moves?

Whoops, we’ve reached the end of the article. I haven’t seen any yet.

I suppose it’s that people are so sick of war, they’re grasping at straws for hopes for peace, even though they’ve all been down this road before and they know full well where it leads. Sad, but not really unpredictable.

The latest cease-fire announcement between Israel and the Palestinians should be good news. Right?

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will declare a formal end to more than four years of fighting at a summit in Egypt on Tuesday, officials from both sides said Monday.

[ . . . ]

“The most important thing at the summit will be a mutual declaration of cessation of violence against each other,” said Palestinian Minister Saeb Erekat.

An Israeli government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the cease-fire agreement, adding that the deal would also include an end to Palestinian incitement against Israel.

So why am I skeptical here? Is it because previous cease-fire attempts have only led to more bloodshed? Is it because despite the signs of hope, the lessons learned the hard way from Oslo teach us that there are no easy answers? Or am I just too much of a pessimist? Nah… couldn’t be. Especially with news like this.

I hope that this is a step towards peace. Unfortunately, I fear that it’s just another futile effort.

Update: “You may say I’m a pessimist… but I’m not the only one”. Here’s Caroline Glick (via Lynn B.):

So, here we are again, at the dawn of a new peace process which will bring no peace; will legitimize terrorists and the authoritarian regimes that support them; will weaken Israel’s democratic institutions while endangering its citizenry; and will engender scorn for America and faith in Israel’s eventual destruction in the hearts of millions of people who today waver between support for freedom and support for terror.

I hope she’s wrong. But sadly, I know she’s probably right.

Israel has cut ties with Abbas in light of a Palestinian terrorist attack that killed six Israelis:

“Israel is severing all planned contacts with the Palestinians on all levels, from security to government leadership,” spokesman Assaf Shariv said, a day after the assault that defied Abbas’s calls for non-violence.

“Everything is canceled until they take steps against terror, so we can see there is not only talk but also action. Abbas knows who carried out the attack, so he will be the one to stop them. It’s very easy,” he said.

Sharon has known all along that Abbas is no “moderate”. He had to give it the old college try for the record, but it certainly didn’t last long for Abbas to muck it up.

As far as mideast politics is concerned, looks like we’re back to regularly-scheduled programming.

According to exit polls, Abbas won the Palestinian election with something like 66-70% of the vote. Now, backed with the legitimacy of a vote, Abbas can get serious about the buisness of funding and protecting terrorists and seeking to destroy Israel.

Of course, the day was marked by gunfire… shots into the air in celebration by Fatah gunmen. I admit I’ve never quite understood that one. Is it like firecrackers? Or is it done in order to be able to blame Israel for anyone killed accidentally by the stray bullets? Or both?

A Jerusalem Post editorial expresses cautious optimism that tomorrow’s Palestinian election will help bring the Palestinian Authority closer to democratization.

However, optimism and Mideast politics tend to go together about as well as oil and water. The telling part of that editorial is the following paragraph:

It’s unfortunate that Abbas chose the low road on the campaign trail, and so far has not prepared his people for the painful compromises that they, too, will have to make on the road to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

That’s quite an understatement, to say the least. For anyone still harbouring the delusion that Mahmoud Abbas is a “moderate”, see here and here, for starters.

I hate to rain on everyone’s parade, but Abbas is just a weaker Arafat. This campaign isn’t about who will finally show some real leadership and help the Palestinians achieve statehood and independence. It’s about who will work hardest to destroy Israel.

I’m glad Arafat’s gone. But my hopes for true Palestinian democracy and a real peace process are very slim.

The press is making a big deal of the comments that Mahmoud Abbas has made calling for an end to armed struggle by Palestinians:

“The uprising is a legitimate right of the people to express their rejection of the occupation by popular and social means,” Abbas said. “Using the weapons was harmful and has got to stop.”

[ . . . ]

“We, at this stage, are against the militarization of the intefadeh (uprising) because we want to negotiate. And because we want to negotiate, the atmosphere should be calm in preparation for political action,” Abbas said. “That’s why we have frankly called for . . . an end to the militarization of the intefadeh.”

Too good to be true? You betcha! Reverting to type, Abbas has probably calculated that calling for less dead innocent Israelis would make him very unpopular among the Palestinian people, and has pretty much reversed himself:

“I don’t want my comment on the demilitarization of the uprising to be misunderstood … All I meant is that we are in a phase that does not necessitate arms because we want to negotiate,” Abbas said in Riyadh where he ended an official visit Wednesday.

The problem with Abbas is that he’ll never be more than a puppet leader. It doesn’t matter what he truly believes, because he isn’t strong enough to carry it out. Barghouti’s withdrawal from the leadership race was probably little more than a calculation that right now, the world powers are clamouring for peace, so he figures he’ll set Abbas up to fail. Then someone – Barghouti, or perhaps a Hamas leadership – can step in once the people are screaming for arms again.

Yes, I’m a pessimist. But it’s hard to be much else when it comes to the Mideast.

The Palestinian spokespeople claim it wasn’t an assassination attempt:

Yasser Arafat’s interim successor escaped injury in a Gaza gunfight triggered by hostile militants on Sunday as Palestinian officials set Jan. 9 for elections to replace the late president and avert a feared power vacuum.

[ . . . ]

The incident began after gunmen from Arafat’s splintered Fatah movement shouting “No to Abu Mazen” — Abbas’s nickname — marched by him as he stood outside the tent, paused and began firing shots into the air.

The gunmen’s rifles were pointed upwards, not at Abbas and Palestinian officials said it was not an assassination attempt.

Members of Arafat’s presidential guard hustled Abbas, 69, into the tent and threw him to the ground for his safety as the militants burst in. Chaos ensued as gunmen and bodyguards began shooting at each other. In the end, two bodyguards lay dead and four other Palestinians were wounded, medics said.

As gunfire blazed about him, Abbas was hustled to safety in his local office. The gunmen withdrew and no one was arrested.

“We were paying condolences. Emotions were high. There was random gunfire and pushing in the crowd,” a calm-looking Abbas told reporters at his office afterward.

I wonder if the anyone actually believes that. I’m betting Abbas doesn’t.

Arafat’s barely cold in his grave and it’s starting already. It appears that nobody will even wait out the “40 days of mourning” before starting a civil war. And in this kind of civil war, the winners will be the most violent, the least moderate, and the worst enemies of Israel.

What was that about an “opportunity for peace”, Mr. Bush?

Sheldon Kirschner in the Canadian Jewish News writes about Israel’s strategic blunder in trying to deal with Arafat:

Israel’s formal decision to remove him seems to have strengthened Arafat, who is widely regarded as the iconic guardian of modern Palestinian nationalism and a shrewd politician.

By all appearances, Arafat’s stock has risen, both among the Palestinian masses and in the international arena.

Palestinians have staged vigils in front of his compound, promising to protect him from harm. It hardly matters whether these love-ins were fabricated or genuine.

More importantly, Arafat wields full authority over the PA once again. Arafat forced his first prime minister and rival, the hapless and ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas, to resign after refusing to cede control of the all-powerful security forces. Ahmed Qureia, Abbas’ would-be successor, is completely beholden to Arafat. Israel has gone on record as saying it will not co-operate with “anyone taking orders directly from Arafat.” So that leaves the already tattered road map peace plan in shreds.

The road map was in shreds long before it even began. But that’s beside the point.

Israel, in trying to threaten Arafat, has managed to undo years of efforts to sideline him and make him irrelevant in one fell swoop. And so now it has to deal with him again.

Former Palestinian security minister and relative “moderate” Mohammed Dahlan was part of Mahmoud Abbas’s puppet cabinet, so he ought to know a whole lot about not being able to get much done. He said that he wouldn’t want to be a part of the new Ahmed Qurei cabinet even if he were approved, because it will be powerless:

Dahlan said he does not want to join the council, which includes all the security chiefs, several officials, Qurei, and Arafat, since it will not be able to make any decisions.

A source close to Dahlan said the members on the council are all rivals and the one who will be in charge is Arafat.

Dahlan was brought into the Abbas government supposedly over Arafat’s objections, and has a reputation as being against terrorism and violence.

Of course, people keep getting drawn into these Palestinian power-play shows as though they’re real . . . as though the “moderates” aren’t just playing a part for the media . . . as though anyone could get into government over Arafat’s objections. It’s all an elaborate hoax that people keep swallowing. And central to that hoax is that if Israel would just (insert action here), then the Palestinians would make peace tomorrow.

This new puppet government won’t be any different than the old one.

And I’m starting to come to the conclusion that Bush is wrong, that democracy isn’t the best precondition to impose on the Palestinians at this stage.

Democracy is a great system . . .when supported by the people. But its greatest strength is also its greatest weakness in a population that is more resistant to change than its leadership. Look at Canada’s attempt to push through gay marriage, to the opposition of a large portion of the population. When the people aren’t ready for something, in a democracy, the government is usually too weak to make it happen.

So when you have a population that’s less than amenable to drastic change, then it takes a very strong leadership to push this change through. And a courageous, visionary leadership, capable of being ahead of the times and seeing possibilities that the population may not be ready for yet. Unfortunately, the Palestinians have no such leadership. Instead, they have Arafat, a corrupt dictator content to push them around and fan the flames of hatred and violence when it suits his personal ends.

But a free and open election tomorrow among the Palestinian people would probably result in the election of Hamas.

It’s utter racist nonsense to say that the Arab countries can’t deal with democracy. But it’s political reality to say that democracy can’t be externally imposed upon a population that isn’t yet ready for it. No country in the world came to democracy without first trying a whole host of other options for decades, centuries, or millennia. It’s still relatively new to the Western World, in the grand scheme of things. And it works – precariously, shakily – but it it works here, because the values of the people are in line with the values of free and open government.

So maybe instead of insisting on democracy before heading back to the bargaining table, Bush and the outside world should insist that the Palestinians come forth with some form of leadership willing to denounce terror and embrace reconciliation – whether their populations like it or not. And they should insist that this leadership has the backing and means necessary to enforce this. That can’t easily be propped up externally either – the West has backed enough corrupt dictators in its day, and has yet to learn its lesson – but there are more options within middle east politics for this form of government. The power structures and economic and social realities need to catch up before democracy can have an honest go.

It’ll happen. And sooner, rather than later, most likely. But it can’t happen right now, as these cabinets – each more of a joke than the last – are showing us.