Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘quebec election’

Cause you’d never know it, just living day to day.

Sure, the media is making an effort to report something – anything – about the campaign trail.

But that deafening silence out there? That’s the sound of seven million Quebecers not caring.

Almost nobody’s talking about the election at the water cooler, over brunch, at the nail salon or the dry cleaner’s. There’s a remarkable lack of debate. People are spending more time discussing Paris Hilton’s driving habits than Andre Boisclair’s – erm – other habits. If an alien landed here from outer space, he’d be hard-pressed to learn that there was an election at all.

Not to mention a complete lack of care or concern about the S-word. Sovereignty, that is. Ask around and this issue that has inflamed passions here for decades will generally be met by a shrug. And I don’t think it’s because people are any less committed to their positions. Rather, I think it’s because the sovereigntists are uninspired and unencouraged, the federalists aren’t feeling too threatened, and the rest are just ready to move on.

I’ll vote on election day. Until then, I’m perfectly content with this snoozer of a campaign. It’s not as though a loud campaign would raise any interesting issues, so as long as the same bunch of yahoo politicians keep talking about the same bunch of ridiculous non-issues, I’m plenty happy to let them do it at a whisper.

Looks like we’re going to be heading to the polls on March 26th, as Charest has apparently decided to play the timing card for all it is worth and take advantage of a bump in the polls for the Liberals against a PQ that – under André Boisclair – seems to have lost its way.

Nevertheless, this won’t be an easy campaign for Charest to win. The Liberals start every campaign with a built-in handicap due to riding distribution, and Charest has never been exactly loved as a premier; his temporary popularity surge is mainly due to the unpopularity of rival Boisclair. Of course, this also means that Boisclair has the lead in the expectations game for the moment, since Charest has a reputation as a strong campaigner, and expectations pretty much couldn’t be any lower for Bosiclair right now if he were a slug.

If Charest wins a second term, Boisclair is sure to be replaced. Under new leadership, the PQ will surely regroup and rebuild, using a likely Federal election in the next year or so to help increase support for sovereignty and lay the groundwork for a decisive election victory in five years followed by a snap referendum. Of course, that’s a long way away, which makes it highly unpredictable.

On the other hand, if Boisclair wins, it will likely be with a weak finish and a murky mandate for sovereignty. Under those circumstances, he may not even call a referendum. Even if he takes a chance and calls one, in today’s political climate, it’s highly unlikely to pass. Ironically, a PQ victory may actually help give another blow to Quebec nationalism, which might be the best-case scenario.

(On the other hand, we’d have André Boisclair as our premier).

Too many ifs at this point. But the gloves are about to come off, so stay tuned for the body blows and the knockout punches. It’s game time.

Jean Charest is invoking the r-word threat to try to bolster his fledging numbers, even though a provincial election is at least a year away and more likely to be two years off:

The possibility of another referendum on independence will help persuade Quebecers to re-elect the provincial Liberals, says Premier Jean Charest.

“In proposing to deeply divide Quebec society, to plunge us back into a referendum fight that will profoundly divide us and create conflicts, it’s an invitation that Quebecers will refuse,” Charest told The Canadian Press in a year-end interview.

Charest is also already using the cocaine card against Boisclair… something usually reserved for a campaign dogfight. The thing is, Charest’s government is about as unpopular as it is possible to be, and these are Charest’s only cards. With the Bloc set to virtually sweep Quebec on the federal scene and support for soveriengty on the rise, is Charest conceding the game before it even begins?

Our likely next Premier of Quebec is 39-year-old Andre Boisclair, who beat out rivals including Pauline Marois for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois, despite the media attention given to his past cocaine use:

Boisclair faces high expectations. Charest has been stuck at staggering levels of unpopularity since shortly after coming to power in 2003. The PQ expects to beat the Liberals and snap Quebec’s 35-year tradition of electing governments to two terms.

Considered a relatively soft sovereigntist and a right-winger in a party of progressives, Boisclair must unite a party whose hawkish elements have taken down Bernard Landry, Bouchard and even Rene Levesque for showing hesitation on independence.

This isn’t good news for federalists. Boisclair, despite his battle to get elected, is just the kind of young, charismatic leader that can recruite “soft nationalists” and increase support for sovereignty. It will remain to be seen what changes he brings to the PQ platform, but one thing’s for sure: he has an excellent chance of steamrolling to victory in the next provincial election.

Jean Charest named his new cabinet today, and the new government was sworn in. Here’s hoping it’ll be better than the last one (can’t be much worse, right?)

With most of the polls reporting, the fairly final election results are as follows:

• Liberals – 76 seats – 45.84% of popular vote
• Parti Québécois – 45 seats – 33.25% of popular vote
• Action Démocratique – 4 seats – 18.28% of popular vote

The race in this election was pretty close all along, with Charest and the Liberals really only gaining momentum after the debate, and pulling away in the past 3-4 days. Tonight, however, the biggest race was between the networks, to see who would predict the outcome the soonest after polls closed.

And all the candidates for Premier have really bad hair. Dumont’s isn’t all that bad, if a little stiff. But Charest’s still got the chia-pet thing going on, and Landry, oh that combover is painful!

Charest and company have reason to celebrate tonight, as the Liberals take a projected 75 of 125 seats in the National Assembly. The PQ is down to only 46 seats, with the remaining 4 going to the ADQ.

Hopefully now sovereignty can take a back burner and the government can actually focus on governing for the next five years. It ought to be refreshing.

As I’d predicted, my vote wasn’t really that important in my home riding of Robert-Baldwin, where Pierre Marsan, the Liberal candidate, took 86% of the vote. Somewhat surprisingly the PQ finished second, and the “why did they bother” Equality party was fourth with only 347 votes at the time I write this. I would have thought the ADQ might do better here, because it’s such a safe Liberal stronghold that some people might have felt like they could get away with voting for them, but the ADQ candidate only managed to get 5% of the vote for a third-place finish.

The swing ridings are much more interesting to watch. Jean Charest managed to win his home riding of Sherbrooke in what promised to be a squeaker. Landry and Dumont also won their home ridings.

This is a new era for Quebec. Let’s see if the Liberals can deliver on their promises to improve healthcare and cut taxes. A pipe dream, perhaps, but a nice one.

Well, I exercised my democratic right to vote this morning. It took all of 15 minutes: wait in line, present ID, check the ballot, and go. Simple, straightforward . . . and yet for some reason I voted with a new appreciation for the process this morning. Maybe it was a reflection that it’s a minority of the world that has this basic right.

And while I know that, thanks to our relatively undemocratic ridings system, my vote probably won’t matter in the least, it still felt good to be able to participate in – well, maybe not exactly democracy, but at least our version of it. Sure, the system is corrupt and the government forces through unpopular legislation despite the objections of the citizens. But it’s a far cry between that and what people in most of the world have to contend with, under oppressive dictatorships with no rights whatsoever.

So make sure to vote. It’s not only your obligation, it’s your most precious right!

I hope everyone had a nice weekend, spending time outside enjoying the beautiful weather.

In case you’re looking for some entertainment, check out the Link’s board for more on the story below, and a very indignant Adam Slater initiating a pissing contest. Reading the interaction I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry at the sheer idiocy of politics at Concordia.

Ah yes, and don’t forget to vote tomorrow!

The latest polls are predicting a possible Liberal victory in Monday’s election:

It is the second survey within 24 hours pointing to a big shift in public opinion in Canada’s mainly French-speaking province in favor of the Liberals.

The results show support for the Liberals up 8 percentage point from a mid-campaign CROP poll. Backing for the Parti Quebecois is down 6 points.

“Should these numbers hold until the election, the Liberals will certainly form the next government,” CROP Vice-President Claude Gauthier told the Globe and Mail. “We might even be witnessing a wave of support for the Liberals that could go up as high as 50 percent of the vote.”

All I can say is, don’t count your chickens before they hatch. The Liberals may well win the popular vote – in fact, it’s almost a guarantee that they will. But the PQ still has a very high chance of forming the government – even a majority government.

I’ve never understood why polls aren’t released by riding. That would be a much more accurate picture of what is likely to happen on election day.