Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘stephen harper’

Statisticians as a group have always kind of flown under the radar, perceived as boring number-crunchers even geekier than accountants who are constantly going on about confidence intervals and accuracy within plus or minus three percentage points.

That is, until the Tory government dropped its inexplicable bombshell decision this month to abolish the mandatory long-form census in favour of a voluntary version.

The public outcry over this move, fuelled in large part by the angry resignation of the head of StatsCan, has all of a sudden made the statistician into a folk hero, a lone crusader for level-headed facts in the face of a government that seems to think that listening to the people is, well, voluntary.

Kevin Liban in the National Post hits the nail on the head on the Harper government’s failures:

But after four and half years of governing Canada, the Prime Minister still doesn’t know how, or maybe, care to, go through the tactful political efforts it takes to win friends and influence people. This is, and appears destined to remain, his weakness, believes Tom Flanagan, the University of Calgary political scientist and Mr. Harper’s former chief of staff and organizer. There was the sudden, surprise announcement to cancel taxpayer funding to parties — which almost brought down the government; the sudden, surprise announcement to cancel subsidies to Quebec artists, that may have cost him a majority government; the sudden, surprise announcement to prorogue Parliament. All without warning; all without consultation; all without properly preparing the ground in advance with notice, persuasion and rationale.

In this case, the government doesn’t seem to have any rationale – at least not any rationale that makes sense or that stands up to the smallest amount of scrutiny. And this decision, which comes out of nowhere and will have ramifications for years to come, has made us a laughingstock in the world and has sparked angry protests from all sides of the political spectrum.

It’s not even a budgetary move. The government wants to send out an additional 10,000 forms to compensate for less people filling them out. In addition to clearly never having taken a statistics class, Tony Clement must have failed basic arithmetic, because sending out all those extra forms will cost more money, not less.

Here are links to an online petition and a Facebook page that have set up to protest the Harper government’s decision.

And, for the West Wing fans, see Sam explain the (U.S.) census to CJ in a classic episode here:

Update 8/4: The new census policy is being challenged in court:

A French-Canadian group has launched a legal attack on multiple fronts against the federal government’s move to scrap the mandatory long-form census.The group has not only asked Federal Court to void the Harper government’s new policy, but also wants an injunction that would keep the new type of census from being distributed this year.

It is also asking the court to fast-track its case so that it can be heard by mid-October, before the government distributes the 2011 census.

Here’s Jane Taber in the Globe and Mail, on Harper and prorogation of Parliament:

In an interview on BNN yesterday, the Prime Minister suggested that prorogation gives him the opportunity to do the serious business of the nation without the distractions of democracy – Commons committees and having to answer those pesky questions from opposition MPs in Question Period.

Yeah, that annoying democracy. Makes it so gosh darn hard to govern when you have to actually, y’know, answer to people.

Another day, another Conservative minority. Stephen Harper can talk all he wants about it being a “strengthened” minority, but the fact is he called this election with the objective of securing a majority government. He failed. ‘

Stephane Dion led the Liberals to one of their worst results in history, and the pundits were calling for his head on a platter even before the votes were finished being counted. He, more than anyone, failed.

Gilles Duceppe set out to prevent a Conservative majority, and that worked. But the Bloc didn’t change its position much since 2006. At best, a neutral result for the Bloc.

Elizabeth May’s Party saw more popular vote breakthroughs, but failed to win a single seat – the stated objective for the Greens in this campaign. May will spin this campaign as a big success, but she, too, failed.

The big winner? Jack Layton and the NDP, who bolstered their support – not at the expense of the Conservatives, but at the expense of the Liberals. In Layton’s book, where power is everything and soundbytes run rampant, this result represents success.

The big loser? The Canadian public. This election cost taxpayers $300 million bucks. This in the midst of an economic crisis. And this, for an election in which only 59% of people voted – the lowest turnout in history.

To quote Don MacPherson in the Gazette:

This year’s campaign was the most negative ever, with the parties doing a much better job of explaining to voters why they should vote against their opponents than why they should vote for them.

So it wouldn’t be surprising if once again, the most popular choice yesterday was “none of the above.”

Well, it was lively and even funny at times. That’s all I can really say about the debate format that provided more of a chance for attack zingers than real reasoned debate. Still, I guess it made for good TV, since we were all glued to the screen for a couple of hours – the longest I’ve watched the CBC for in a while. My initial impressions:

• Stephen Harper seemed surprisingly nervous. Though his calm tone of voice contrasted well with the others, as it did two years ago, and he had the advantage of incumbancy, his positions lacked the moral clarity that they used to hold. He seemed almost wishy-washy, and he got backed into several embarrassing corners, namely on Iraq, on arts funding, and on a promise not to raise taxes that will surely come back to haunt him. He seemed rattled by May’s presence, and his showing was surprisingly poor, especially compared to expectations. I can respect someone whose views I don’t necessarily agree with, but it’s hard to respect someone who doesn’t show the courage to have those views. He missed chances to take the stance of the right on issues such as foreign policy. But then, he also had a horribly biased moderator (I mean, what kind of question is “do you think Harper is a barbarian?”). And ultimately, he can be declared the winner if only because he won the portion on the #1 voting issue, that being the economy. The rest probably won’t matter much. Still, I was surprised to see him looking so shaky.

• Stephane Dion is obviously the worst debator of the group, and had the worst showing tonight by far. His debate style mirrors the problem plaguing his election campaign: He lacks charisma, leadership ability, and the confidence to get his ideas across. I did like that he talked about standing up for what it means to be Canadian, believing in our accomplishments, and regaining our place in the world. And I also believe that he has better ideas than his debate skills would seem to indicate. But there’s no doubt that he needed to do a whole lot better than he did in order to have any chance of picking up votes tonight. This was a missed opportunity for Dion.
• Jack Layton accomplished something I didn’t think possible: he managed to make me hate him even more than I already do. I will give him points for consistency, mind you. He consistently managed to take the exact views I disagree with each and every time. Quite the achievement. Seriously, though, he was the only candidate who actually managed to get across what he stood for, rather than just spending all of his time attacking the others, and he deserves some grudging praise for that. I still can’t stand his used car salesman smile, his annoying little moustache, and his habit of saying “Exxon” in every second breath.
• Gilles Duceppe had nothing to gain or lose in this debate. He didn’t make nearly as strong a showing as he did in the English debate in the last election, mind you. As expected, he talked a lot about the province’s rights, and issues important to Quebec. He also scored the most points on the arts funding issue and – surprisingly – did a better job of defending environmental rights than either Dion or May. He had one of the best lines of the debate, when asked what he would do first if elected Prime Minister, he glibly said that he won’t ever be PM… and neither will three other people at the table. But mostly, he seemed tacked on, since he didn’t really answer any of the questions with a real policy answer.
• Elizabeth May was impressive. Period. She’s obviously a skilled debator and, though her style seems vaguely reminiscent of our neighbours south of the border, she scored a lot of clear zingers. I disagree with her on a lot of issues, but she did the best in terms of being prepared with statistics, facts and researched answers. She scored a lot of points that way, and she rattled Harper’s cage more than once. Where I felt she missed an opportunity, though, was in getting her party’s message across. The Green Party platform is all about how every other issue is related to the environment and cleaner, healthier, better living. May’s debate style lended itself well to the format, but she scored more points on attack than on ideology. Since people voting Green are mostly doing it out of ideological reasons, I felt she could have been clearer on what she stood for. Still, I think a lot of heads were turned by her showing in this debate. And she certainly had a right to be there, probably even more of a right than Duceppe.

Overall, the debate won’t lead me to change my vote, but then, I wasn’t really on the fence. For undecided voters, I suspect that Dion will have lost ground, Layton might have gained some among people who actually agree with him (read: not moi), and May probably picked up some points. What this will mean for Harper’s chances at a majority, though, is anyone’s guess.

And no, I didn’t watch the US vice-presidential debate.

In a very un-Conservative move, Stephen Harper made a campaign promise today to regulate businesses more, cracking down on such unfair business practices as price-fixing, deceptive marketing, and incoming text message fees.

While my usual philosophy is to tell government to stay out of business, in this case, I think Harper has the right idea. A free market is one thing; illegal business practices are another. The telecom companies are among the chief violators of fair competition, and they have long hid behind the CRTC to gouge consumers at every turn. This is not a big money issue for most Canadians, but it’s one that gets us up in arms pretty quickly, so it’s actually smart of Harper to latch onto the issue in his campaign.

I just wonder if it will be easier for me to sue Bell for charging me hundreds of dollars of bogus fees, after I cancelled my service with them? Yeah, I doubt it too.

A massive ice shelf has broken away from Ellesmere Island, in Arctic Canada… just further evidence that we’re soon going to have the climate of the tropics.

And just in time for an election, too! Stephane Dion ought to be all over this news. Except that polls still put Harper ahead, with Dion’s personal numbers trailing those of even Jack Layton:

The Ipsos Reid Poll, in the National Post newspaper, showed 50 percent of those polled viewed Harper as the best leader. Jack Layton, leader of the left-wing New Democrats, followed with 31 percent support, while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion trailed a distant third with only 20 percent.

If Dion can’t even convert real environmental news into polling numbers, it doesn’t bode well for the Liberals. Time for Dion to dust off his resume; his days as Liberal leader are numbered.

With the Conservatives’ popularity rising, and Harper so far refusing to cave to the opposition parties’ throne speech demands, the only question in this high-stakes game of political chicken is: who will swerve first?

Hard to say, but I’m betting Harper is sleeping better than Dion, these days.

Parliament voted to uphold legalized gay marriage today, defeating a motion introduced by the Harper government to appease their right-wing base:

“We made a promise to hold a free vote and we kept that promise. The result was decisive and we’ll accept the democratic result,” Harper told reporters.

Legislators voted 175 to 123 to reject a motion by the right-leaning Conservatives to re-examine the law, which some religious groups and critics say undermines society.

This motion was defeated by an even wider margin than that by which the initial law was passed last year (158-133), indicating that most of the country believes that this has already been decided, and it’s pointless to keep drumming it up. Same-sex couples have had the threat of the law being reversed hanging over their head ever since Harper took office, so hopefully this means that everyone can now get over the issue and move on to things that actually matter.

The Quebec nation debate is predictably irking some other nationa – specifically, the First Nations:

Canada’s indigenous peoples are feeling a bit snubbed by Parliament’s decision to recognize Quebecers as a “nation” within a united Canada and not them too.

Native Indian leaders say the vote in the House of Commons, which has helped reignite debate over the role of French-speaking Quebec within largely English-speaking Canada, ignored the peoples who lived in North America before European settlers arrived.

Either Stephen Harper completely didn’t think of this one, or he calculated that there weren’t enough votes among the First Nations communities for it to make a difference. In any case, this is just one more egg contributing to the giant omelette cooking on Harper’s face thanks to this issue that he should’ve refused to touch with a 10-foot pole.

Well, maybe. Or maybe not. Nobody seems to know for sure what the results of a vote on whether to re-open the gay marriage debate in Parliament will mean, other than that Stephen Harper will notch one more promise onto his belt that he can claim to have kept.

I suppose the Tories need to do this, get past it, and get on with things; Harper is probably even secretly grateful that it’s likely they’ll lose. Despite his personal convictions, the last thing he wants is a divisive fight on the issue and lengthy court battles. Then again, the timing makes me wonder whether he’s just trying to mobilize his conservative base ahead of an election.

In any case, the motion will probably be easily defeated. Here’s hoping people can get over it at that point and get on with things, and that they don’t allow this to devolve into a neverendum-referendum situation. The Quebec sovereignty issue is already one thing too many that refuses to go away. We don’t need another.