Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘syria’

The miracle is happening quietly: Syrian troops are withdrawing from Lebanon after 29 years of occupation.

Analysis is as varied as Mideast political opinions tend to be. And as of right now, there are more questions than answers: Is this a genuine move by Syria to recognize Lebanon’s independence, or simply a media move designed to mask the fact that Assad still plans to pull Lebanon’s political strings from afar? Will Lebanon – a country with a rocky history, to put it mildly – elect a free and democratic government? Or will competing factions pit against one another, resulting in more bloodshed? Will a democratic Lebanon be claimed by the Bush team as a victory for its policy of spreading democracy in the Mideast? Or will an unholy mess result? Where does Hezbollah fit in with all of this?

And what about Israel? Even as the Lebanon Daily Star reports that Israelis are eyeing a peace deal with Lebanon, more realistic analysis from Ha’aretz puts the prospects for this at dim to nonexistent – at least for now:

Nevertheless, Lebanon is still committed to a common policy with Syria when it comes to the regional peace process. Lebanese opposition leaders have also declared that they have no intention of dismantling either the political or the economic cooperation between the countries, and they certainly have no plans to be seen to be in a hurry to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Of the zillion different competing factions in Lebanon, the one thing they have in common is their hatred of Israel. In fact, it might be the only common base on which they will be able to work to mend and re-forge a national identity. It’s easy to see, in the context of a story like Lebanon’s, why it’s so convenient for people to unite around their one commonality: hatred with Israel. It’s either that or destroy one another. (And they’ve done plenty of both over the years).

A lot will depend on what happens in the coming months. But regardless, I don’t think Israelis will be taking shopping trips to Beirut anytime soon.

Israeli President Moshe Katsav shook hands with Syrian President Basher Assad and with Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, at the funeral for Pope John Paul II at the Vatican today:

Israeli President Moshe Katsav shook hands and chatted briefly Friday with the leaders of Israel’s arch-enemies, Syria and Iran, during the funeral of Pope John Paul II, the president’s office said.

Katsav’s spokeswoman, Hagit Cohen, said it was too early to say whether the handshakes would yield diplomatic fruits, but called the exchanges historic. “There is no doubt that this is a precedent, it was a historic moment and unique opportunity,” Cohen said.

Is this an encouraging sign of a future thaw? Positive news on a Friday afternoon is always welcome, and colour me crazy but I’m tempted to view this in an optimistic light, despite my better judgment. A baby step, to be sure, but a step nonetheless.

I can’t help but wonder what reaction will be like in Syria and Iran at the news.

Update: Well, I didn’t have to wonder long. Khatami is denying the handshakes took place, claiming it’s – what else? – a fabrication of the “Zionist media”. Can’t say that surprises me too much. (Via Meryl Yourish).

In what is being hailed as a victory for democracy, Lebanon’s Syria-backed puppet government resigned yesterday in the face of massive public pressure:

Tens of thousands of jubilant demonstrators sang the Lebanese national anthem in downtown Beirut Monday afternoon after hearing over loudspeakers that the pro-Syrian government had stepped down. Prime Minister Omar Karameh announced his government’s resignation during a stormy parliamentary session in which opposition legislators accused him and his government of culpability in the assassination of his predecessor, Rafik Hariri.

The demise of the pro-Syrian government is only the beginning for the opposition, which said its next goal was to force pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud to resign and the Syrians to withdraw from Lebanon, a source close to the opposition told The Jerusalem Post. “We’re determined to raise the roof,” he said.

But while everyone rejoices, the more important question of “what now” is bound to come up. Syria needs to get out. But will democracy truly come in? Or will another bloody struggle, of the sort that Lebanon is so famous for, erupt?

So far the protests have been non-violent, which is a good sign. But Lebanon has a very messy history. There’s somewhat of a power vacuum being created, and we all know that these things rarely end nicely.

Despite that, I have to admit I’m encouraged. The Lebanese people seem to have been recharged in their wish for democracy, and it’s looking more and more like they might succeed in achieving their goal – with implications for the rest of the region as well.

…a bunch of stuff happened.

For one thing, the Martin government released a federal budget, which was another snoozer. Lots of promises to everyone that will deliver not a whole helluvalot to anyone. By my calculation, the “massive tax cuts” promised will save me exactly $14 in income tax next year. That’s two movie tickets and a small popcorn on cheapy night. Yippee! The budget was designed with one purpose in mind: to keep the Liberals in power. Well, mission accomplished, I suppose.

From the maybe-yes-then-again-maybe-no department, Paul Martin has proven himself, in the grand tradition of Canadian leaders, to be incapable of making a decision if it might cost him a few votes. Martin has opted not to participate in the missile defence program with the United States, on the grounds that, well, it would give him bad press because of rampant anti-Americanism. Oh, and the NDP might use words like “Star Wars”. Everyone knows that Star Wars are scary. Especially “Attack of the Clones”. That was just awful.

Anyway, I don’t quite get it. And neither does Paul Cellucci:

“I personally don’t think it’s in Canada’s sovereign interest to be outside the room when a decision is made about a missile that might be coming toward Canada.”

Paul, Paul, Paul… haven’t you learned anything in your years as ambassador to Canada? It’s not that we’re not interested in defending our country. It’s that we Canadians have deluded ourselves into thinking that if we smile and are nice and polite to everyone and refuse to take a stand on much of anything, that nobody will ever attack us. As for those pesky terrorists, well, they’re mainly just misunderstood, and we’ll give them an immigration hearing in about 6 months.

Moving on. Syria might withdraw from Lebanon in response to massive public and international pressure following the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri… maybe. I guess the Syrians don’t particularly relish the thought that the ever-pervasive “End the Occupation” posters at ANSWER rallies might be directed against them, instead of against Israel. Of course, everyone knows that Baby Assad is really just stalling, hoping that the issue will blow over and the world can go back to merrily ignoring Syria’s sins and condemning Israel. That should happen in about 10 seconds, when the Israelis begin heightening security measures in reaction to today’s suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. If there’s one thing the Arab world can count on, it’s the rest of the world’s single-mindedness when it comes to Israel.

Finally, from the Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish department, Holocaust-denier Ernst Zundel will finally be deported from Canada, after hanging out in a Toronto jail for the past couple of years, trying to fight extradition to Germany on the grounds that he would immediately be prosecuted there for hate crimes. Somehow, I can’t see anyone shedding any tears over his departure.

Three bombings in the Philippines have killed 11 people so far and wounded at least 130:

Security forces quickly blamed Abu Sayyaf, a small Muslim rebel group associated with al Qaeda, for the improvised bomb in General Santos and a grenade attack at a bus terminal in Davao that killed a young boy.

In Manila, six people were killed in an explosion on a bus at a commuter terminal near the crowded Glorietta mall, major hotels and the nation’s financial and diplomatic core.

“There’s a strong possibility the attacks could all be linked,” said Norberto Gonzales, the national security adviser.

“They have admitted two. We will know more later.”

Also, a car bomb in Lebanon killed at least 13 people, including former Lebanese Prime Minister (and presumptive target) Rafik al-Hariri:

A previously unknown Islamist group said in a videotape aired by Al Jazeera television that it carried out the attack because of Hariri’s support for the Saudi government. The claim could not be confirmed.

Hariri had remained politically influential since his resignation and recently joined opposition calls for Syrian troops to quit Lebanon in the run-up to a May general election.

Widespread speculation that the Syrians are involved cannot yet be confirmed, but I wouldn’t be too surprised. There’s a long tradition among terrorist governments to dissociate themselves with the bands of terrorists that they directly fund and control.

And I will never stop wondering why there aren’t massive international “end the occupation” rallies against Syria’s occupation of Lebanon.

I wonder why anything the French government does surprises me anymore. This sure doesn’t:

Syria’s drive for a U.N. resolution condemning an Israeli air raid on its territory stalled in the Security Council for another day on Wednesday as Damascus looked for possible compromise with a divided Europe.

All four of the council’s European Union states — France, Britain, Spain and Germany — have signaled Syria that its draft resolution had to be more balanced to win their support.

But while Britain was insisting, along with Washington, that the resolution must condemn Saturday’s deadly suicide bombing in Haifa, Israel, to win its vote, France was making no such demand, diplomats said.

After all, it was only a bunch of Jews who were murdered. Why should France concern itself?

Israel has bombed a terrorist camp inside Syria in retaliation for yesterday’s Haifa bombing:

Palestinian sources in Beirut said Israeli warplanes raided a facility belonging to Ahmed Jibril’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), injuring one man. In addition to PFLP members, terrorists from Islamic Jihad, Hamas and al Qaeda also utilized the camp for training. Among the buildings hit in the raid was a weapons workshop used by Islamic Jihad.

Military sources said that the base was selected as a target because of the central role that Islamic Jihad played in the Haifa bombing. The decision to carry out the raid was made in response to the bombing 12 hours earlier in Haifa.

“The Islamic Jihad, like other terror organisations … enjoys the support and backing of countries in the region – foremost Iran and Syria,” the army statement said.

Syria is screaming of course, and issued a statement denying that the target was a terrorist camp, calling it a “civilian target” – which is a bit hard to swallow, considering the video footage released by the IDF showing a tour of the camp . . . and the fact that the Palestinians also claim it’s a training camp. Considering terror-sponsoring Syria is on the UN Security Council, we can probably expect another resolution in short order, condemning Israel without making any mention of the terrorist attack that killed 20 innocent Israelis.

30 years ago today was the start of the Yom Kippur war. But it seems unlikely that Syria will attack militarily. 2003 is not 1973 and even the Syrians aren’t that dumb.

This may have been a risky move for Israel . . . but it’s probably a necessary one, to expose to the world that the so-called “underdog” is really backed and sponsored by some of the world’s strongest countries.

The reaction from the Arab world to the U.S. veto of a UN security council resolution calling for Israel to stop threatening to expel Arafat was fairly typical:

Arab League:Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab League, said he hoped the veto doesn’t mean the United States supports Israeli policies “which are opposed by the whole world.”

Egypt:“The pretext saying that the draft resolution was unbalanced is baseless,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said Wednesday. Maher echoed concern Israel might see the vote as a license to go after Arafat. He said that if nations don’t pressure Israel to desist from its “provocative and aggressive” policies, it would show the international community’s “powerlessness.”

Syria: Syria’s UN Ambassador Fayssal Mekdad expressed regret at the veto, calling it “extremely regrettable” and warning that it “will antagonize the feeling of Arabs in the region.

The Palestinians:“Clearly this is not a neutral position,” Ziad Abu Amr, a member of the outgoing Palestinian Cabinet, said. Senior Arafat adviser Nabil Abu Rdeneh told reporters the veto could jeopardize the U.S-backed “road map” for Mideast peace. The vote “is a real encouragement for the Israelis to continue their escalation,” he said. Nasser Al-Kidwa, the Palestinian UN observer, said the United States lost its credibility as an honest broker and warned that “serious consequences may follow.”

(It seems that “honest broker” has been translated as someone who condemns both sides of a dispute equally, regardless of who is at fault. That’s like a parent being criticized for grounding only one child and not both, when the grounded kid crashed the car and the non-grounded one brought home straight As.)

Jordan: In Jordan, the opposition Muslim Brotherhood said it was not surprised at the U.S. veto because “the Zionist lobby … controls the American policy in the Middle East.”

Oh, and I suppose we should include France: France said it regretted that the UN resolution on Israel didn’t pass. The resolution “had a balanced message that we believed could bring a consensus,” Cecile Pozzo di Borgo, the French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said in Paris.

Balanced??? I think Israel is making a political blunder by threatening to expel Arafat, but that doesn’t make the proposed UN resolution any more balanced:

The rejected draft resolution would have demanded “that Israel, the occupying power, desist from any act of deportation and to cease any threat to the safety of the elected president of the Palestinian Authority.”

It would have condemned Israel’s targeted assassinations of militant leaders and Palestinian suicide bombings, “all of which caused enormous suffering and many innocent victims.” It would also have called for a cessation of “all acts of terrorism, provocation, incitement and destruction.”

In other words, yet another UN condemnation of Israel without any mention of Palestinian terror. Sure, France, that looks balanced all right.

The UN seems to believe that a simple “majority rule” decides the difference between right and wrong. If the Arab nations and the Europeans gang up on Israel, then it must be okay, because they’re outvoting the US. More votes, more right? Only in a morally bankrupt world where right and wrong no longer exist. Unfortunately, this is increasingly the world where we live.

With Saddam out of Iraq, now Syria is getting fidgety and appears to be taking US threats more seriously:

“We welcome the statement of President Bush and hope that this statement marks the beginning of a serious and constructive dialogue,” Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara said on Monday. “We in Syria do not like argument … we are for dialogue.”

On Sunday, Bush said Damascus was “getting the message” that it should deny sanctuary to fleeing members of ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s government, one of the issues that fueled tensions between Syria and the United States in recent weeks.

LGF had a very fitting cartoon by Cox & Forkum the other day on the subject. Now that the US has proven it is willing to back up words with actions, other countries are sitting up and taking notice.

In yet another example of strife between Arab nations, it appears that Syria has closed its border to Iraqi refugees trying to flee ahead of attacks.

As the countdown to war continues, Iraqis have been trying to get out of the country.

But since midday on Tuesday, they have been unable to cross the border into Syria.

There were conflicting explanations about why this was the case, but from speaking with Iraqis waiting to be let in and officials on both sides it appears that Syria decided to close its border after an influx of Iraqis earlier in the morning.

The Iraqi side then decided not to process any more passports for travelling Iraqis.

An Iraqi custom official expressed his anger at the Syrian decision, saying it was turning back families with women and children at a time when their lives were at risk because of an impending war.

Note that Syria not only sits on the UN Security Council, but has been adamently opposed to the prospect of war supposedly out of concern for the civilian population. Some concern.