Oh, I heard all the platitudes. It won’t be so bad, people said. Give them a chance. They’re not so scary. They won’t do anything that they didn’t do as a minority (not like that was very reassuring, either).

Yeah, right.

In politics, it’s customary to review the “first 100 days”. Unfortunately, Harper and his cronies have been so busy doing shit, that waiting until 100 days for this review seemed excessive.

(And yes, I know it’s not really the first 50 days of majority government. The 41st Parliament only convened on June 2nd, which is in fact less than 3 weeks ago. That’s a frighteningly short period of time in which Harper has already managed to do an awful lot of damage. But it has been 50 days since the election, so I think the post title is appropriate.)

Let’s look at what’s happened in the 50 days since the May 2nd election, shall we?

• Workers’ rights have taken a serious beating, with back to work legislation being tabled against Canada Post, and threatened against Air Canada (who struck a deal to avoid it). In the case of Canada Post, arguably the legislation is against the crown corporation, which has locked out the workers. And those of you who know me understand that I have rather ambiguous feelings about labour unions that have too much power. But, especially in the case of Air Canada – a private company with competitive options for the consumer – the Tory government’s swift response against any labour rights whatsoever crosses the line even for me. There’s a happy medium in there, and this ain’t it.
• Senate appointments for three Tory MP candidates who lost in their ridings called into question not only the appointment process itself, but Harper’s own promises to reform it. Canadians didn’t even blink. Beyond that, he’s threatening to abolish the Senate altogether if they don’t cave to his extortion cooperate with his reforms.
• Asbestos exports are once again being defended by the Tories, who apparently feel that cancer is okay as long as it happens to people in other countries.
• Job cuts in the public sector are coming pretty much right away. One of the first areas to be hit? Auditors. Cause, y’know, Harper doesn’t want anyone actually noticing how badly he’s been cooking the books – and how badly he plans to continue doing so.
• And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that Harper is about to appoint two judges to the Supreme Court – something that will have ramifications for decades.

When you consider that there are still most of 5 years to go in his term, and that nothing prevents him from being re-elected, it’s downright terrifying.

1. The right moves further to the right. The Tories, after spending five years walking all over Canadians as a minority, now get to walk all over Canadians even more as a majority. Harper believes – as he should, with these numbers – that he has a mandate from Canada to impose his agenda and move the government rightward. Forget the Shit Harper Did; what about the Shit Harper will do?
   
2. The left moves further to the left. The official opposition is now the NDP, not the Liberals. The same NDP who has campaigned on anti-Israel platforms; who cozies up to the labour unions; who believes that quota systems will provide equality.  The NDP is positioning itself as the de facto Tory alternative, and with nearly three times as many seats as the Liberals, it clearly believes that it is the voice of the left – or the potential leader of any merger or move to unite the progressive parties. Ironically, the jubilant Layton doesn’t seem to grasp that he had more power in fourth place in a Tory minority than he does in second place in a Tory majority.
   
3. The middle disintegrates. The Liberal party is in shambles. They lost over half their seats and most of their star MPs. They lost official opposition status. They will have to regroup and rebuild. And the common sense centre, the great balancing force against polarization, is severely crippled. Moderation is what suffers in this outcome.
   
4. A weaker official opposition. A Harper majority is a scary enough prospect. But now 102 NDP MPs – many of whom are complete political rookies – will be heading to Ottawa to serve as the official opposition. Even seasoned Liberal MPs would have had a hard time keeping the Harpers in check. There’s no way that inexperienced political neophytes from the NDP will be able to pull it off. Harper’s now got a majority with no strong opposition; he can basically do whatever he wants and get away with it.
   
5. Bloc collapses, but sovereignty gets a boost. The big news of the night was the Bloc Quebecois’s collapse from 47 seats to 4 amidst the Quebec “orange crush”, and Duceppe’s defeat and resignation. It should be good news for federalism? Right? Wrong. I’ve never seen so many Quebecers feel disenfranchised and alienated from the rest of Canada. This is going to provide a huge boost to sovereignty. I’m about as staunch a federalist as it gets, but even I have to admit that I see their point. Quebec voted overwhelmingly left-wing progressive NDP; the rest of Canada (except for Newfoundland) voted overwhelmingly Conservative. Is there any point in arguing that we’re not different here in La Belle Province?
   
6. Human rights? What human rights? With as many as four Supreme Court seats opening up to be stacked by Harper-crony Conservatives during this term. Abortion rights, gay marriage, rights of women, rights of minorities, immigrants’ rights… you name it, it’s on their agenda for attack.
7. No more funding for arts and culture. That is, unless the Calgary Stampede is your idea of a cultural event.
8. Technology and innovation? Not on Harper’s watch. With important issues facing our country around telecom consolidation, internet billing and metering, privacy, digital rights management… the only party who didn’t respond to Canadians’ concerns about internet and digital policy is the one now holding a majority in Parliament. Four or five more years for the rest of the world to advance while Canada lags behind? Will we even have an economy when Harper is done with us?
9. Canadians get slapped around; claim we fell down the stairs. We have a government who ignores us at every turn, walks all over us, and breaks the law with impunity. We get a chance to toss it out on its ear. Instead, we go crawling back to it. Domestic abuse on a grand scale, anyone? Basically, we’ve just sent Harper a message that he can get away with anything. And he will.
10. Harper plans to reward his “base”. The Alberta-native social conservative movement has been waiting a long time in minority to get rewarded for its efforts to put Harper in power. All this time, he didn’t revisit socially conservative issues because he didn’t have a mandate and knew that the opposition wouldn’t let him get away with it. Now, all these interest groups want their pound of flesh. Our flesh.

The silver lining is, it’s only 4 or 5 years. The question is, will we recognize Canada after all that time?

4 out of 9 of Canada’s Supreme Court Justices have mandatory retirement dates within the next five years. Guess who appoints Supreme Court Justices? That’s right, the Governor-General in “consultation with” (read: direction by) the Prime Minister.

And who do you think Harper will stack the courts with, given the opportunity? Given his government’s record, I only shudder to imagine.

The Supreme Court wields an enormous amount of power. And to show what can happen with years of stacked appointments, we need only to glance at our illustrious neighbours to the south, the United States:

Think it couldn’t happen here? Think again:

Pro-life supporters successfully influenced an as-yet unannounced government decision to deny funding to Planned Parenthood, says a Conservative seeking re-election.

Brad Trost, incumbent for Saskatoon-Humboldt, addressed the Saskatchewan Pro-Life Association’s annual convention Saturday and thanked its members for their help in killing federal funding for the group.

In a recording of the speech, obtained by the Liberals and provided to the Toronto Star and Le Devoir, Trost claims a number of parliamentary victories for the pro-life movement, including a decision to deny funding for the International Planned Parenthood Federation.

This is all part of a decision that was rendered by the Conservative government to exclude abortion funding from its maternal health plan for developing nations. Having denied access to abortion to women in other countries, now the government is setting its sights on our rights as Canadians.

And, lest you think that it’s only women’s reproductive rights that are under attack, rest assured that Stephen Harper doesn’t discriminate like that; he’s determined to attack all women’s rights.

But don’t worry, Stevie. You may hate women, but women hate you too:

Now here’s hoping that more Canadian women get jolted out of apathy and turn out and vote.

(Hat tips: Kirsten, Andrea, and the good people over at ShitHarperDid.com.)

Read the platforms here:

• Liberal Party of Canada
• Conservative Party of Canada
• New Democrat Party of Canada
• Bloc Quebecois (in French)
• Green Party of Canada

Then, when you’re done, check out the candidates in your writing. Read up on their voting records, if they are already MPs. Read their blogs, find their  Facebook pages, check out anything they’ve written or published. Make sure you know who you’re voting to send to Parliament on May 2nd.

An uninformed electorate gets the government that it deserves. So get informed.

Last week, the CRTC ruled that usage-based billing, the model used by large Internet providers such as Bell Canada and Rogers Communications to charge customers extra for exceeding monthly download limits, will apply to smaller providers, too. Until now, those smaller providers could offer unlimited Internet packages; the ruling means they no longer can.

There have been hints already from Industry Minister Tony Clement that the federal government may quash the controversial ruling, and the prime minister has asked for a review of it. But the government’s blunt ultimatum to the CRTC suggests any review would be pro forma.

This was a terrible decision by the CRTC – yet another in a long line of them that have backed Big Telecom’s demands over the rights of the consumer and the marketplace. Usage-based billing would have stifled innovation and choked off advancement, it’s true. But let’s not forget that, thanks to the CRTC, Canadians pay the most in the world for cell phone plans, pay for incoming text messages (despite another Harper campaign promise… anyone remember that?), and enjoy tons of lovely censorship of TV and radio. All because the CRTC is supposed to protect the interests of all Canadians, but only protects the interests of three: Bell, Telus and Rogers.

As for the government, let’s not forget that this is one decision, taken under overwhelming public pressure, in the face of hundreds of other decisions that have gone against consumer interests. The real solution isn’t to review this one decision; the real solution is to review the CRTC’s overall mandate and existence.

And I’m not even talking about the ads that were pulled.

But there is little chance a private member’s bill would be able to get through the Commons and Senate by the time the 2011 census process starts in March.

I’m not sure which is the saddest part of the story here: The Conservative disdain for and lack of understanding of the far-reaching implications of their decision? The fact that this is the first time in years that I can remember that the Liberals actually did something I can support? Or the fact that our government apparently can’t get even a single thing done in five whole months?

Looks, it’s quite simple: You don’t have to like who’s elected, but you have to respect the will of the electorate. A power grab “just cause we can” is the last thing that the country needs.

Dion, Layton and Duceppe need to back off from the brink, cool off, and find a way to at least give the Conservative minority government a chance to work. For the good of everyone. Because Harper may have been elected by a minority, but that’s more people than the zero who voted for the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition.

Now that Parliament has been suspended, maybe it’s time to lock all four of them in a room together and force them to work out their issues and get back to the task at hand: Running the country.

Stephane Dion led the Liberals to one of their worst results in history, and the pundits were calling for his head on a platter even before the votes were finished being counted. He, more than anyone, failed.

Gilles Duceppe set out to prevent a Conservative majority, and that worked. But the Bloc didn’t change its position much since 2006. At best, a neutral result for the Bloc.

Elizabeth May’s Party saw more popular vote breakthroughs, but failed to win a single seat – the stated objective for the Greens in this campaign. May will spin this campaign as a big success, but she, too, failed.

The big winner? Jack Layton and the NDP, who bolstered their support – not at the expense of the Conservatives, but at the expense of the Liberals. In Layton’s book, where power is everything and soundbytes run rampant, this result represents success.

The big loser? The Canadian public. This election cost taxpayers $300 million bucks. This in the midst of an economic crisis. And this, for an election in which only 59% of people voted – the lowest turnout in history.

To quote Don MacPherson in the Gazette:

This year’s campaign was the most negative ever, with the parties doing a much better job of explaining to voters why they should vote against their opponents than why they should vote for them.

So it wouldn’t be surprising if once again, the most popular choice yesterday was “none of the above.”

Voting is our most fundamental right and privilege. Regardless of your politics, make sure to exercise that right today and vote. Remember, if you don’t vote, you can’t complain about the results.

A Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reporter who covers Parliament will be reassigned because she inappropriately wrote questions for an opposition legislator, the public broadcaster said on Monday.

The ruling Conservative Party — no fan of the CBC — complained that television journalist Krista Erickson had given the questions to a Liberal member of a committee examining the dealings of a former Conservative prime minister.

Whatever your politics, you have to admit that this is a new low for the CBC. Our tax dollars at work.

Hard to say, but I’m betting Harper is sleeping better than Dion, these days.

The Bloc Quebecois banded together with the Tories to avoid a government collapse. But most people don’t believe this minority government will last more than a few months longer. A friend of mine was just hired by Elections Canada, so if you’re the betting type, you might want to put your money on spring or summer.

All that the Tories have managed to do with this budget is to legitimatize the Quebecois claim of a “fiscal imbalance” and to make an attempt at social engineering. The Tories seem to have forgotten their promises to balance the budget, cut taxes and grow the economy, preferring to tell people that they should drive greener cars, get married, have more babies, and own businesses that don’t grow too big. From a financial management perspective, based on initial impressions, I’d give it a D.

The key question is, will the extra $2.3 billion be enough to elect Jean Charest next week?

He told the university audience that he would not follow through with a promise by Prime Minister Stephen Harper to reduce the GST to five per cent, from six per cent, by 2011.

“(The GST cut) is $5.5 billion out of the economy every year and it will not transform the economy and it is not a good social policy,” Dion said.

Instead, he would introduce tax measures that would encourage people to choose appliances that conserve electricity, cars that use the least amount of gas and for retrofitting homes to reduce heating fuel consumption.

“We want to make a link between your wallet and the planet,” he said, adding that such measures will be part of the party’s next election platform. ”It’s the way you change the culture.”

This is actually pretty savvy of Dion. The announcement is clear-cut, it’s easy to understand, and it comes at a time when the environment is at an all-time high as a voter concern.

Now, we can argue all we want about whether it’s a good idea to reverse tax cuts to try to use the government for social engineering, or whether the GST cut was a silly idea to begin with, or what the best way really is to help the environment. But whichever side of this one you’re on, the most encouraging sign is that suddenly we have a debate that’s once again about vision and policy, rather than about scandal and character. If this is a sign of things to come, I, for one, find it downright refreshing.

“We made a promise to hold a free vote and we kept that promise. The result was decisive and we’ll accept the democratic result,” Harper told reporters.

Legislators voted 175 to 123 to reject a motion by the right-leaning Conservatives to re-examine the law, which some religious groups and critics say undermines society.

This motion was defeated by an even wider margin than that by which the initial law was passed last year (158-133), indicating that most of the country believes that this has already been decided, and it’s pointless to keep drumming it up. Same-sex couples have had the threat of the law being reversed hanging over their head ever since Harper took office, so hopefully this means that everyone can now get over the issue and move on to things that actually matter.

I suppose the Tories need to do this, get past it, and get on with things; Harper is probably even secretly grateful that it’s likely they’ll lose. Despite his personal convictions, the last thing he wants is a divisive fight on the issue and lengthy court battles. Then again, the timing makes me wonder whether he’s just trying to mobilize his conservative base ahead of an election.

In any case, the motion will probably be easily defeated. Here’s hoping people can get over it at that point and get on with things, and that they don’t allow this to devolve into a neverendum-referendum situation. The Quebec sovereignty issue is already one thing too many that refuses to go away. We don’t need another.

The decision by Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to take a pro-Israeli stance is unwise and could cost him votes in the next election, particularly after seven Canadians were killed by an Israeli attack, political observers and commentators said on Monday.

Harper’s Conservatives, who took power in February after 13 years of Liberal rule, have a fragile minority and rely on support from other parties to govern.

Harper is widely expected to call an election in the first half of next year but to win a majority he will need to start winning seats in major cities like Toronto and Montreal, both of which have large ethnic Arab populations.

“A lot of Lebanese voted Conservative (in the last election) because they were tired of the Liberals,” said Mazen Chouaib, executive director of the National Council on Canada-Arab Relations.

“Those who would have been swayed to vote Conservative will not do so (next) time,” he told Reuters.

Note how the article only vaguely refers to “commentators”, before quoting a clearly biased interested party that makes no sense on the key issue because most Arab-Canadians didn’t vote Conservative in the first place.

This is nothing more than a thinly-veiled editorial disguised as news. I can sleep well at night knowing that such a high quality of journalim exists.

The real questions are, what now? Will Harper be able to govern? Will the NDP and the Tories combine for 155, or will they just miss? Will Harper work with Duceppe? How long can this crazy mess possibly last?

The good news:

• The Bloc lost both popular vote and seats in Quebec. They can spin all they want, but this was a big blow to them, and is good news in the leadup to the next provincial election and sovereignty referendum.
• Paul Martin is finished as Liberal leader. The party will now be jolted out of corruption and complacency, and will have to reorganize and revitalize itself in preparation for the future.
• The Tories have a win but not necessarily a mandate. Their small minority will not allow them to do all the scary things that the Liberals accused them of wanting to do (and that they probably didn’t want to do in the first place).
• Svend Robinson was defeated in Vancouver. Whew.

The bad news:

• The Bloc Quebecois lost seats but gained power. They’ll now hold the balance of power in government, and they can exact a steep price to keep Harper’s government alive.
• Minority government or not, Stephen Harper is now the Prime Minister of Canada. He has made a number of promises that I’m extremely uncomfortable with, and I suspect, many Canadians are too. (The silver lining here is that politicians are very good at breaking promises).
• Had the Conservatives lost, Stephen Harper would surely have been forced out and the party might have had a chance to elect a more moderate, centrist leader and move to the left. Instead, Harper will keep his job and the Tories will remain socially conservative. Depending on your take on the situation, this is either good or bad. Regular readers here ought to understand how I feel about that one.
• If you’re gay and planning to get married, you might want to move that date up a bit.

And yes, for posterity’s sake, I’ll say it again: I was wrong in my prediction of no gains for the Tories in Quebec.

• Don’t count out the Liberals just yet: I know all the polls have Harper ahead, but the gap has been narrowing over the past week and the latest polling data is at least 48 hours old. Vote distribution is a matter of interpretation, and the people doing the interpreting are just as guilty of bandwagon-jumping as the next person. Furthermore, what people answer in polls always differs from what they actually do on election day at the ballot box. I’m not saying Harper will lose, I’m just saying it’s not a lock that he’ll win either. If tomorrow ushered in another Martin minority government, I wouldn’t be shocked.
• Predictions of a Tory breakthrough in Quebec are premature: On the same note, I’m simply not convinced of polls that have the Conservatives picking up multiple seats in Quebec. While their support numbers are higher than the Liberals, the Libs’ support is concentrated here in Montreal and the Tory support is spread out all over the province. One Tory seat? Maybe. None, most likely. Certainly not eight or ten. Won’t happen. Not this election.
• The Bloc will likely hold the balance of power: That’s the most likely scenario in a Tory minority government. The Liberals will rarely support the Conservatives, and the NDP almost never. If Harper wants to govern, he’ll need the Bloc. That won’t be good for Canadian unity no matter how they spin it. And if Harper refuses to deal with Duceppe, it will be a very short time until we’re right back at the polls.
• Paul Martin’s dusting off his resume: If the Tories win tomorrow, Paul Martin can kiss his political career goodbye. If nothing else, that would help the Liberals move past the sponsorship scandal and start with a clean slate, so to speak. As for Martin, what do ex-Prime Ministers do nowadays when they’re not testifying at federal enquiries? Anyone heard from Kim Campbell lately?
• There will be a January 24th: Whoever wins the election, life will go on. The sun will rise in the east. Canada probably won’t be all that different from what it is now.
• A little perspective: We can quibble all we want over sponsorship scandals, constitutional reform, healthcare or tax cuts, but remember that whoever wins will be democratically-elected, relatively moderate, and won’t be killing people in torture chambers. Even those of us holding our noses and voting for the “best of the worst” would do well to pause for a moment and appreciate the momentous significance of having the right to vote at all. Because I look around the world and I realize that it’s no small thing.

Vote early, vote often, vote your conscience. Stay tuned for liveblogging of the results tomorrow night.

Which, of course, just leads voters to focus on the topic of his potential scariness.

Didn’t anyone ever tell him that the surest way to get people to think something of you is to make a point of denying it?

Sure enough, today’s polls show a stagnation in the Tory lead. And whatever Harper thinks, it ain’t over till the fat lady starts warbling. As I’ve said all along, don’t count out the Liberals just yet.

So why vote Liberal, you may ask?

Is it because I think the Liberals have done such a great job? Not really.

Is it because I buy into the scare tactics about Stephen Harper being George W. Bush reincarnated, prepared to turn us into a far right-wing theocracy? No, I find those ads amusing at best and ridiculously disastrous for the Liberals at worst.

Is it because I think that the culture of corruption that has set in amongst the Liberals is worth rewarding? Definitely not.

Is it because I’m voting strategically, in a riding where a Liberal vote would prevent a Bloc or NDP candidate from getting elected? Nope, my riding has been solidly Liberal since 1968 and even the sponsorship scandal won’t be changing that anytime soon. I could safely lodge a protest vote with little impact.

Is it because Martin convinced me in the debates? Not at all; in fact, he’s probably one of the worst debaters I’ve ever seen, and he got his butt kicked all the way to Ellesmere Island and back.

Is it because I agree with the majority of the Liberal policies and platform issues? Not even.

Is it because I believe that a Liberal victory represents the best chance to keep Quebec in Canada and to fight sovereignty? On the contrary, I think it will probably hurt a great deal.

So, you’re probably asking yourself, why on earth would I vote for this party?

Good question.

The answer is simple: Despite all the scandals, despite all the corruption, despite the promises I don’t believe and the policies I don’t agree with, the Liberal party still is the “best of the worst” in my mind. On the major things the government has done lately, I’ve been much closer to the Liberal point of view than to the Tory one.

Some examples:

• The economy: Whatever else he’s done, Martin has balanced the budget and improved economic conditions. He did his best to stand up to people like Jack Layton against spending we can’t afford. He even stood up to Bono – and hey, if you can say no to Bono, you can say no to anyone. The Canadian dollar is up, unemployment is down, and while the economy is still plagued with problems, I simply don’t believe that Harper is better equipped to solve them than Martin is. The Tory promises to reduce the GST may play well in the media, but in practice there are plenty of other places worth cutting first.
• Social issues: Gay marriage is probably the most prominent example lately. As I’ve stated many times on this blog before, every Canadian – gay or straight – ought to recognize this as an issue of fundamental human rights. Any of us who belong to any kind of minority should understand that if you can have a majority-rules decision against one minority, the same logic could be used against any of us. Martin and the Liberals were on the right side of this one. Harper and the Tories were on the wrong side. And while I don’t really believe Harper will reverse it, nor do I agree with electing a party that has dedicated so much time, energy and resources to fighting it. I think the Liberals took a courageous position on this one and I respect them for it (if for little else).
• Voting for the candidate, not the party: Cop-out? Perhaps. But I like Marlene Jennings, the incumbent Liberal MP in my riding, well enough. Her voting record is often in step with what I believe (though not always), and she has been especially strong in defending Israel and in working to strengthen Canada’s ties with Israel, which is an issue of importance to me. And I’m comfortable having her represent my riding in Parliament, whether as a member of the government or as a member of the opposition.

So the upshot is, I’m not entirely happy to be voting Liberal and I’m not about to hit the campaign trail for Martin’s team. There are plenty of places where I flat-out disagree with the Liberals on policy, and there’s no doubt the party is about as corrupt as you can get. But I’m not going blue this time, for those reasons and for the reason that I simply don’t believe the Tories have presented enough of a positive platform. They’ve been stronger in attacking the Liberals, sure, but their policy initiatives haven’t won me over.

Okay, bring it on. I’m ready.

La Presse is one of Montreal’s major newspapers and is widely considered the French federalist voice in Montreal (as opposed to Le Devoir, which leans separatist) and it had previously endorsed the Liberals almost automatically. But with the sponsorship scandal tarnishing the Liberal name, there’s a feeling now that the Tories may actually make some inroads. I’ve been saying it won’t happen for a long time, and if it does I may have to admit I was wrong and eat my words.

Then again, as they say, the only poll that matters is on election day. I’m still not convinced that this surge in polling numbers is going to translate into seats. And there’s no way the Liberals will be shut out of Quebec – whatever else happens, the Liberal stronghold seats in English Montreal are safe. As for percentages, since polls are not conducted riding-by-riding, there are as many ways to predict how the distribution will break as there are political opinions in Canada. I still believe that the surge in polling for the Conservatives in Quebec will translate into a lot of second-place showings in ridings where the Bloc wins, as opposed to seats. (The Election Prediction Project has the Tories ahead recently for the first time, but too many seats are too close to call to truly predict the outcome).

Nonetheless, with less than a week to go, Stephen Harper has overcome his toughest challenge: fear of a Tory government. With 55% of Canadians saying they believe a Conservative majority is a good idea, it seems that the Liberal attack campaign backfired on itself. And take a closer look at those numbers: the percentage of people who think a Tory majority would be a good idea is highest in Quebec – even higher than it is in Western Canada. (For the record, I’m not among those 55%, but then, regular readers already knew that).

Ontario, of course, remains the key battleground, and if it turns out that people are all talk and no action on election day, then we will be ushering in another Martin government. If Ontario goes blue, however, Stephen Harper should start preparing for his new job as Prime Minister.

Whatever my reservations about the Tories, I can’t imagine that they would take steps to restrict a woman’s right to choose. And although the attack is supposedly coming from an independent source, it’s difficult not to read between the lines and attribute this to the Liberal strategy of trying to paint Harper with the U.S. right-wing fanatic brush. Martin might think he’s scoring points, but the scare tactics are looking much more like desperation tactics at this point.

Dumont said the Bloc limits the province’s influence on the national scene and acts more like a millstone around Quebecers’ necks.

He said he would vote Conservative, but only recommended that voters not vote for the Bloc.

This is a truly odd move for a politician whose party has practically defined fence-strattling on the sovereignty issue, but is nonetheless pretty clearly separatist. The ADQ spiked in popularity a few years back, but came down pretty quickly when people in Quebec realized the party’s platform was a lot further to the right than most of them agreed with.

So ideologically I can understand why Dumont might vote Tory. Politically, I’m not quite sure what he’s doing. Viewed in context of the next election, is Dumont perhaps repositioning himself as a federalist? Doubtful. Though he usually answers questions about sovereignty with the convenient answer that he wants to “get past” the issue, Dumont has never been anything but nationalist.

More likely, he’s betting that the provincial Liberals have lost so much support, that if the ADQ wants to win seats in the next provincial election, their real opponents will be the Parti Quebecois. He sees Bloc momentum as leading to PQ momentum, and he wants to position himself as an alternative voice.

At any rate, most people in Quebec are unlikely to listen. Whatever happens in the rest of Canada, Gilles Duceppe has never been more popular in Quebec right now, and the Bloc is positioned to win perhaps 60 seats, maybe even more. Despite recent polls showing the Tories taking a slight lead overall in Quebec over the Liberals, this is unlikely to translate into any Tory seats, as their numbers will put them second in a number of Bloc ridings but the Liberals still have concentrated support in many Montreal ridings (including my own).

So Dumont’s comments will probably have little effect in the short-term. But they’re worth keeping an eye on for how they might affect the political landscape ahead of the next Quebec election.

Now, there’s very little dispute that the Liberal campaign has been terribly run. These ads are a bit of a running joke, especially to those of us in the business. And they’re fun to parody and are probably hurting the Liberals more than helping them.

But since when is the negative tone of this campaign “news”? The Tory ads have all attacked the Liberals from day one. They were better ads, granted, but they still spoke exclusively of how bad the Liberals were and had nothing to say about the Tories or their platforms. This has been an attack campaign since the beginning; the only difference is that now the Liberals have climbed into the ring. And if these are their “knockout punches”, Paul Martin’s team is in big trouble.

In the meantime, the Tories have their own troubles, with the news that one of their candidates has been charged with smuggling. The Tories claim they didn’t know, which is probably true. But if they’re going to run a campaign attacking Paul Martin’s claim that he didn’t know about the sponsorship money, at the very least they ought to react to this with more than a “it’s not our fault, we didn’t know”.

And as the two parties throw mud at one another, here in Quebec, Gilles Duceppe is using the opportunity to build support for sovereignty. Regardless of the result of the federal election, the news for Quebec looks bleak.

Martin tripping over his words and talking with his hands, Harper so eerily calm that he seems tranquilized, Layton with his little weasel smile, and Duceppe once again making me wish he was on the other side. Plus ça change…

Want to liven up these debates? Let all the parties participate. Not only the Greens, who probably deserve to be there, but also the White Elephants, the Marxist/Leninists, the Communists, the Marijuana Party, the Libertarians, and, for good measure, the Christian Heritage Party. Let the kooks loose on stage and all the 4 main parties will suddenly appear middle-of-the-road.

Polls for the first time are showing the Conservatives taking the lead. People are actually starting to see Harper as the man to beat here as opposed to Martin. I’m still very skeptical. I think this is the high-water mark for the Tories, and that many people who would have voted Conservative as a protest vote will think twice now that they actually have a chance of winning.

But then, there are still 2 weeks until the election. Anything could happen.

Some believe that Harper is going to score points in Quebec thanks to this move:

Aside from the possibility that the Liberals may try to spin this as giving Gilles Duceppe a legitimacy he does not deserve – even though they agreed to let Duceppe take part in the main leaders’ debates, in French and English – I think this is an absolutely brilliant move by Harper. And once again, Martin dropped it right in his lap.

Many Quebec federalists are sick of the Liberals, but feel like they have no other choice if they want to keep the separatists under control. [. . . ] The Conservatives have to change that, and this would be an excellent step forward. We should be using that “stand up for Canada” line as often as we can.

I disagree. Harper has practically zero chance of making gains in Quebec no matter how many times he claims otherwise. He simply doesn’t have his pulse of the political nature of the province. He’s running a campaign marketing his party as the “anti-Liberals”, but we already have the “anti-Liberals” in Quebec in the form of the Bloc.

Even soft nationalists or Quebecois federalists will be willing to vote Bloc if they’re mad at the Liberals, realizing that it’s a far cry from an actual vote for sovereignty. (Hell, 40% of Quebecers think that even a vote for sovereignty still means that they want Quebec to stay in Canada. Our electorate ain’t always the brightest).

So Harper can’t score too many points in the province by saying “the Liberals are corrupt, don’t vote for them”. Because Quebecers will simply counter with “we know the Liberals are corrupt, thanks” and turn around and vote for the Bloc.

However, Harper’s move isn’t all idiocy. He has nowhere to really climb in Quebec, but he probably will pick up support based on this challenge, where it counts: in the rest of Canada. He can use this to make Martin look soft on sovereignty and himself look like the guy willing to stand up for Canada. And with that, he may pick up some support in Ontario, a critical battleground.

This is exactly the sort of thing I’d like to see from the Conservative party. But if you want voters to buy in, you need to convince them you’ve thought it through and you can afford the tax cut while still maintaining a balanced budget. And somehow, comments like this one aren’t doing much to reassure me that Harper understands the intricacies of economic policy:

“I’ve never supported the GST myself. I believe all taxes are bad. Lower taxes are good,” Harper said.

Wow, that statement is nearly Bush-like in its oversimplification! (Does that mean that Harper is promising us Bush-like deficits, too?)

There are lots of places where the government could cut useless spending to afford a tax cut. I’d like to see Harper suggest some of them. Otherwise, this is nothing but an empty campaign promise and I remain unconvinced.

We’ve got the NDP, who are a bunch of commie rat bastards.
We’ve got the Conservatives, who are a bunch of fascists.
We’ve got the Bloc Quebecois, who are a bunch of separatists.
And then we’ve got the Liberals, who are a bunch of crooks.

Pick the adjective that you find the least insulting and cast your ballot. May the least bad insult win.

The post starts by linking to a very sensible column in the Ottawa Citizen about what Harper needs to do if he wants to improve his chances in this election:

For the past couple of years, the party has focused on highlighting Liberal corruption and opposing same-sex marriage. This strategy has created three problems, all of which remain unresolved and continue to plague Mr. Harper.

One, Canadians know little about what he actually stands for: they only know what he is against. Two, the Liberals and the media defined the Tory leader before he could do so himself, which explains his personal unpopularity and the Tories’ inability to break 30 per cent in polls. And three, the party has not been able to attract new support because it has failed to reach out to new constituencies. Most people who oppose same-sex marriage are already voting Tory. The party has to move beyond that base.

Then, on the news that Harper is doing precisely the opposite, we get comments like these:

It’s an appeal to the social conservative vote, all right, but that’s not just the stereotypical Christian right. It’s also a way to appeal to new immigrants and the various ethnic communities, who need assurance that the Tories won’t ram a secular social change down their throats.

Actually, the idea that the Tories would pick up votes from immigrant communities by bashing gay marriage proved to be a massive failure in the last election. Why Harper keeps harping on it (no pun intended) is a mystery probably best explained by lack of any other coherent policies.

Then there’s this gem:

This IS a brilliant idea! Here’s how it works:

By bringing up SSM and causing the Liberals to use their ‘boogeyman’ tactics, Stephen Harper has deprived the Liberals of their most powerful weapon.

In this phase of the campaign, the parties should be keeping their most powerful arguments for the final stage. By forcing the Liberals to respond now, their most dangerous argument is going to be exhausted before the end of the campaign, and the Liberal message will appear repetitive.

This is a risk, and will cause a bump in the polls for the Liberals, but it is a brilliant strategy which will ultimately help make a Conservative win happen.

Never doubt Stephen Harper’s intelligence.

Oh, that’s a great strategy there. Lead off the election campaign by talking constantly about the thing you want voters to forget??? Sounds like the other person whose intelligence I need to doubt is the author of this comment.

The Conservatives don’t have a chance in hell. But the delusion-fest continues. Read if you dare.

Figures released by Elections Canada show the Liberals took in $5.2-million in the election year of 2004, while the newly merged Conservatives raked in $10.9-million.

So the big question is, what was the source of most of this funding? Because, judging by the tune that the Conservative Party has been singing all year, I’m willing to bet that a good part of that $10.9 million was chanelled from groups lobbying against same-sex marriage.

The bill will become official once it receives approval in the Senate, likely within days. With it the barriers to gay and lesbian weddings will tumble in Alberta, PEI, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories — the last jurisdictions where courts have not yet struck down the marriage law.

The legislation applies to civic weddings at public places, like city halls and courthouses. No religious groups will be forced to sanctify same-sex marriages if they don’t want to.

I’ve blogged extensively on this issue in the past, and I won’t rehash all the arguments I’ve already made on why I firmly believe in this issue. (If you’re interested, see here, here, here, here and here for some past posts on the subject).

Of course, the Conservatives have erased any hopes they might have had of being a viable alternative to the Liberals by marginalizing themselves as a single-issue party:

But Conservatives promise the debate isn’t over yet.

Leader Stephen Harper said he will bring back the same-sex marriage law for another vote if he wins the next election.

And with that, he’s pretty much guaranteed that he will never, ever win a Canadian election. Elections are won in the middle, not with promises to revoke a right once it’s been won.

This debate will rage on. And our American neighbours seem to be sadly heading in the opposite direction, so it may take them quite a while to get to this place.

But in my opinion, this is a great day in Canadian history. Just as we wonder what took so long for women or people of colour to be granted equal rights in the past, future generations will look back on this day.

Congratulations, Liberals. You finally took a stand on something. It took you long enough.

The Opposition Conservatives are willing to support the NDP’s $4.6-billion budget amendment, but only if the Liberals agree to delay same-sex marriage legislation.

The Liberals have the numbers to pass the budget even without Conservative support. So did the Liberals grow a backbone and tell the Tories to stuff it? Hah! Not exactly:

Reacting to word of the opposition offer, Prime Minister Paul Martin’s spokesperson Scott Reid said no deal had been struck.

“The government committed to make every effort without summarily cutting off debate and others’ views to get C-38 passed this session,” Reid said.

But, Reid added, actually getting the same-sex marriage legislation passed before Parliament rises may be out of the government’s hands.

“That remains our hope, but the fact of the matter is that if the Conservatives are determined to obstruct and filibuster, it may be difficult.”

In other words, they’re committed to the bill as long as it doesn’t make life too difficult for them. Oh yeah, that’s a strong stand.

Damian Penny thinks that the Tories have failed because they haven’t told Canadians in any clear terms what they stand for. I have to disagree. The Conservatives are making it blazingly obvious what they stand for: they have a single-minded obsession with gay rights that is trumping everything else on the agenda. Kate McMillan thinks the Tories need a three-syllable platform to win support. Well, how’s this for a three-syllable platform: “homophobes”.

Sadly, the Conservatives seem unable to get past being a single-issue party, and the Liberals seem unable to stand up to their blackmail. And of course, when auctioning off civil rights, minorities like Canada’s gay population are the first losers. Who will it be next?

top member of Canada’s opposition Conservatives unexpectedly defected to the ruling Liberals on Tuesday, giving the minority government of Prime Minister Paul Martin a better chance of surviving a crucial budget vote this week.

Belinda Stronach, a leading light in the Conservative Party, joined Martin’s cabinet as the minister of human resources and will vote with the government on the budget on Thursday. If Martin loses, an election will be called.

Stronach, who ran for the Conservative Party leadership but lost to Stephen Harper in a landslide, certainly had some ideological differences with the rest of her party. She supported gay marriage in a party firmly opposed. She supported more liberal social policies in general. She claimed that the Tories don’t understand middle Canada – and she has a point there. In fact, she had represented the hope that the Tories would move closer to the middle, but her hopes seem to be dashed now.

But the timing of this switch was no coincidence. Stronach saw an opportunity (the budget vote), named her price (a cabinet posting), and made the leap at a time when she had the most to gain. The current math has the smart money on the Liberals winning the budget vote now, thanks to Belinda’s defection. After all, she in effect is adding two votes to the Liberal side of the fence, by switching her vote against to a vote for.

Will Stronach’s constituents support her decision and re-elect her? Or will they view her as a disloyal turncoat?

More importantly, will people still describe her as “Canada’s answer to Ann Coulter”? (She never was in the first place, but that’s besides the point).

If today’s opposition motion in parliament passes, then the Liberals say they won’t view it as a no-confidence vote, and they’ll simply ignore it. However, it clearly is a no-confidence vote, and there’s only so long they’ll be able to deny it.

However, if the Conservatives get their way and do succeed in bringing down the Liberal government with this motion, then they’ll have won the battle but lost the war. They can trigger an election but they don’t have the support to win it… and the Liberals will get right back into power with another minority and we’ll start all over again.

If Harper had any political horse sense, he’d lay off the no confidence votes and try to let the Liberals govern for a little while. In the meantime, he’d make some good speeches, hammer home some policy points, and try to look like a statesman. Instead, he’s continuing to push for this pyrrhic victory, regardless of the cost.

This is what we call a lose-lose situation. Unless, of course, you’re Gilles Duceppe.

Update: As predicted, the Liberals lost the vote but are still denying that it means anything.

It may seem ridiculous but denial, in this case, is golden, since if the Liberals continue to attempt to govern despite the motion, and the Conservatives are forced to use petty tactics like trying to shut down parliament, it doesn’t take much to figure out who will benefit at the polls.

It looks like there might not be an election after all, as the Conservatives’ polling numbers slip and Harper looks increasingly like a vengeful opportunist each day. The Conservatives are going to have to come up with a better argument than “we’re not the Liberals” if they want a turn in power. In the meantime, Martin’s gamble seems to be paying off, and his shaky government might get its life support extended a little longer.

More idiocy on parade as the annual workers’ event of May Day results in “clashes with police”. That’s the media’s non-judgmental way of saying that a bunch of idiots smashed things and then reacted violently to police who tried to get them under control. Oh yeah, and they really really don’t like Jean Charest. Just in case we didn’t know that already.

North Korea’s getting bolder as the Dear Leader of Death Camps slowly realizes that the rest of the world can’t or won’t do anything to stop them. Canada won’t sign onto the US’s missile defense plan, but Japan certainly sees the value in it.

Violence is on the rise again in Egypt, as suicide attacks on tourists by Islamist terrorists sent a chill through the region. This pretty much rules out any hope that last month’s attacks at Taba were isolated incidents. One thing we can pretty much count on: if Egypt’s tourism industry suffers, they’ll find a way to blame Israel somehow.

And last but certainly not least, Passover is over and I’m back to eating real food again. It’s great to have a meal that doesn’t taste like cardboard!

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper’s director of communications apologized Friday for referring to Canada’s Prime Minister as “Osama bin Martin.”

Geoff Norquay, director of communications for the Leader of the Opposition, said he meant the reference to the international terrorist leader as a joke.

Some joke.

Members of the Canadian Parliament on Tuesday voted down an opposition attempt to derail the minority Liberal government’s bill to legalize gay marriage.

The New Democratic Party and most Bloc Quebecois MPs joined with a majority of Liberals in voting 164-132 against a motion to block legislation to legalize gay marriage nationally. The Conservative Party motion called for no second-reading of the bill unless it included language that reaffirmed the traditional definition of marriage as between a man and a woman.

My Canada affirms equal rights for all citizens regardless of religion or religious beliefs, gender, ethnicity or sexual orientation. My Canada doesn’t look to enshrine discrimination in any form in legislation. My Canada is flawed, but at least it’s trying. And the Conservatives do not reflect my Canada in their persistent, singular focus on an issue that’s meant to get votes from one group by denying rights to another.

No, this isn’t the most important voting issue for me. It won’t even make the top ten. But it is a shining example of how the Conservative pandering to the social right-wing is not going to get them elected anytime soon. Memo to Harper: Elections are won in the middle.

Independent MP Chuck Cadman’s single seat could give a Tory-BQ voting bloc enough votes to overcome a Liberal-NDP partnership. On Tuesday, he told reporters that he is “pretty well neutral” on the issue of bringing down the government at the moment.

No pressure, eh?

Of course, there’s still some horse-trading going on before that point is reached. I sincerely doubt that the government will fall today… if only because any party who causes it to collapse will pay the price dearly in the next election. The Liberals will probably make enough promises to the Conservatives to get them to come on board for the time being.

Still, these alliances are indicative of things to come. It could be a rocky few months.

Don’t beat yourselves up too much, guys. The pollsters had it way wrong. There’s going to be a lot of questions being asked at Ipsos-Reid this morning.

Big journalism reacts as well. The Gazette thinks that the Liberals won because “fear overcame disgust”. The Globe and Mail says that Martin’s victory was only provisional, and that he should resist NDP pressures to swing too far to the left fiscally. The CBC speculates on what’s next for Martin, and questions his role as a leader. And of course, the separatist paper Le Devoir lauds the Bloc’s “remarkable victory” and says Quebecers gave the Liberals a “kick in the ass”.

Indeed. It was the Quebec Bloc sweep that cost the Liberals their majority government.

There’s a lot of speculation going on about what comes next. Will Martin manage to form a stable minority governing coalition? Or will the whole house of cards collapse in a few months? We’ll have to see.

Liberals: The nominal winner, Paul Martin, managed to hang onto a plurality, pulling ahead of expectations in the final days of the campaign and making a stronger showing than many people thought. He’ll keep his job. But he also lost his majority, several cabinet ministers, and a whole lot of seats. He also lost his ability to move his party rightward and bring in fiscal reforms, now that he will have to deal with the NDP. He probably has mixed feelings tonight.

Conservatives: Harper’s campaign was the biggest disappointment of the night for his supporters, and his opponents are breathing a sigh of relief. Despite peaking numbers and some crazy-talk about a Tory majority, Harper will be relegated to official opposition status yet again. Despite picking up a few seats, he’s the big loser of this election, no question.

Bloc Quebecois: Duceppe’s virtual sweep of Quebec was a big victory for Duceppe, as he brought his party to levels not seen since the Bouchard days. Predictably, he’s now claiming that this was a vote for sovereignty, and it looks like we might be facing the prospect of another referendum here in Quebec. On the other hand, Duceppe has to be at least a little disappointed that his party will not be holding the balance of power in Parliament.

NDP: Layton and his ragtag bunch of lefties are the night’s big winners. Despite getting the least number of seats of the big 4 parties, and only 15% of the popular vote, it is the NDP that will be setting the agenda in Parliament with this minority government. They will hold the balance of power, and Paul Martin will be forced to make all kinds of concessions to them in order to govern. Layton’s camp is ecstatic tonight.

Overall: In a way, this was the worst possible result. The Liberals had an opportunity to win a majority and move the party closer to the center. Instead, they will be forced to deal with the NDP. In a way, I would have almost preferred a Conservative minority, because at least then the government would’ve been powerless to do anything, propped up by the Liberals only long enough for them to regain their popularity, and then soundly defeated in an election that would restore a Liberal majority. Now, instead of more centrist ideas getting respect, we will be hearing about all of the NDP’s nutty policies getting attention. Tomorrow’s Canada is worse off than yesterday’s, and that says a lot.

So I will head off to sleep, feeling a mixture of relief and disappointment. And then I will remind myself that none of this really matters all that much anyway.

Stephen Harper has begun to talk publicly about forming a majority government, suggesting for the first time Thursday that his Conservatives would deliver a Throne Speech in the fall followed by a budget emphasizing tax cuts, military spending and increased transfer payments to the provinces for health care.

Even with recent poll results showing a slim lead for the Conservatives, the chances of them forming even a minority government are slim. A majority government is so far out of the realm of possibility, it’s completely ridiculous:

An Ipsos-Reid poll, published in Thursday’s Globe and Mail, showed the Conservatives in a virtual tie with the Liberals, but nowhere near a majority government. The party would need a major breakthrough in Quebec or in Liberal strongholds such as Toronto, Montreal and parts of Vancouver to govern without another party’s support.

Besides which, it’s my sense that the Tory popularity has peaked, and that by next week the poll numbers will show some of the effects of the Liberals’ latest round of attack ads. Negative campaigning is low, but it also tends to have its desired effect – hence the reason so many politicians resort to mud-slinging.

The only way the Conservatives could govern would be by allying with the Bloc Quebecois. And that would be a move that would be met with the rejection of most Canadians. The two parties are so far apart on virtually every issue, it is hard to imagine them finding enough common ground for even a strategic alliance.

Advice to Mr. Harper: if you want Canadians to take you seriously, stick to reality and forget dreamland.

But here’s the thing: Quebec no longer sends 73 Liberal MPs to Ottawa. The Bloc has won most of Quebec’s seats ever since the 1993 election, leaving the Liberals with around 35 Quebec MPs at most. The Bloc is far ahead of the Liberals this time around, and if Martin wins 25 Quebec seats, I think he’ll be lucky.

That means the Conservatives would have to win 25 more seats than the Liberals in the rest of the country – hard, but not that hard. The Liberals will likely win most of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, but the Conservatives will win all but one or two of the 28 seats in Alberta, thereby cancelling out that advantage. SES now puts the Conservatives ten points ahead in Ontario, ahead by 6 in B.C. and ahead by 7 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

If these numbers hold, I think we’d looking at a Conservative minority government. As for a majority, alas, Sari is right – you can’t realistically do it without picking up at least a few Quebec seats.

The thing about polls, as I’ve been arguing, is that they don’t reflect political reality in Canada because they aren’t added up by riding. The party that wins the popular vote doesn’t always win the election. We almost take the system for granted at this point.

I still don’t think that this is Harper’s election. The last time a Conservative government won in Canada (during the Mulroney years), it had the backing of considerable political forces in Quebec. Since then, the Liberals’ dwindling support in the rest of Canada might very well go to the Conservatives, but the Bloc will be picking up the support here in Quebec.

Polls are also notoriously inaccurate. People may feel no pressure to say one thing on the phone to a pollster, but when they actually go vote where it counts they can do another. With the slips lately from the Harper camp on divisive issues like abortion, some people may be getting scared. The public is fed up with the Libs, but I simply don’t see the Conservatives getting elected in Canada without more than perhaps a single seat won in Quebec – which is the most they can realistically hope for here. No, I think this is a polling blip and that we will end up with a Liberal government, albeit a minority one.

The party that will gain the most? Sadly, the NDP. Their swing votes will suddenly matter in parliament in the case of a minority government, and their agenda given much more attention than usual. Good news? Hardly.

Which of us is right? We’ll have to see in three weeks, I suppose.

I was just over on the Gazette’s site and I saw a banner ad for StephenHarperSaid.ca, an attack website run by the Liberal camp against the Conservative leader. (Note that the Harper camp has lowered itself to the same level by launching TeamMartinSaid.ca against the Libs.)

Anyway, the banner ad included a sentence that reads: For the whole quote, it’s source and context, visit StephenHarperSaid.ca.

It’s.

Yes, I make lots of spelling errors too. But this is my personal site. I were funding an ad to appear on major websites, and wanted to make myself look good and my opponent look bad, I might consider using a spell check…

Just a suggestion.

Harper spent a lot of time in his victory speech talking about how the Conservatives were going to overthrow the Liberals and form the next government. But he couldn’t beat the Chretien Liberals as leader of the Alliance, and he won’t beat the Martin Liberals this time.

What he will do is regain his job as leader of the official opposition… only this time, the Liberals might only have a minority government. Which will give Harper’s Conservatives a lot more power. However, I don’t believe that Harper will ever be Canada’s Prime Minister. The conservative fiscal policies may appeal to many, but Harper is still perceived as too Western, too socially right-wing, too alienated from the sensibilities of mainstream Canada.

I think Harper himself said it best, when he said that “it might be a few years too late, but welcome to the 21st century”. The Conservative Party is continually being several years behind the times. Until that changes, neither will the government.

All ridings being created equal in the Conservative leadership race, fewer than 10,000 members in Quebec’s 75 ridings count for almost three times as many points as nearly 100,000 members in 28 Alberta ridings.

[ . . . ]

Harper was desperate enough to do the merger, and confident enough he could win the leadership regardless of the rules, that he went along with a system which, in Quebec, is greatly to his disadvantage.

So he can hardly complain now that Belinda Stronach, who barely speaks French, is racking up big gains with small numbers in Quebec.

Of the 9,000 Conservative members in Quebec, about 5,000 were members of the former PC party – Tory activists of good standing. Some 4,000 new memberships have been sold, and of those Stronach has sold about 3,500.

Of the 7,500 points available in Quebec, Stronach looks like winning around 5,000, or about one-third of the 15,401 votes needed to win the leadership.

Sometimes fact really is stranger than fiction.

I can just picture it now:

“…As we follow this exciting primary race for the Conservative Party nomination to Quebec, the first province to vote. In this province with a history of a politically independent spirit, the candidate who comes out ahead is not guaranteed to win the leadership, but it will surely set the tone. Front-runner Stephen Harper has elected to skip campaigning in Quebec, shoring up his efforts in his Western Canada stronghold. In the meantime, following her pledge to learn more French, outside candidate Belinda Stonach has been hitting the campaign trail hard… reportedly, she’s managed to learn one phrase: “voulez-vous coucher avec moi ce soir?”.

“…As there are only four registered Conservative Party members in Quebec eligible to vote, the votes shouldn’t take too long to count. And here are the results. Would you look at this! Stephen Harper, considered the sure front-runner, tied with Stronach with only one vote apiece. What a setback for Harper and a boost for the Stronach campaign! But the far and away winner is, with a commanding lead of two votes or fifty percent of the Quebec vote, why, it’s Moman, from La Petite Vie!

“…Next week, Ontario votes, and we will see if surprise candidate Moman can maintain his commanding lead across the country. It looks all over for Harper, though.”

Yeah, okay, primaries are a bad idea.

Works for me.

Frankly, I think that would attract a LOT of votes. Here in big-brother-land, where the CRTC promotes endless “Canadian content” (read: crap) and allows licensing for Punjabi and Tamil stations and entertains applications from the likes of Al-Jazeera, it is illegal to get the latest episodes of the Sopranos or Six Feet Under. As well as a host of other programming, denied the right to air because of the horrible crime of being American.

I for one find it insulting that the government presumes to decide what’s “best” for us by denying us some of the most innovative, entertaining television to be created in recent history, but giving us all the Red Green we can watch. Whoopee.

News flash to the CRTC: We’re grownups. We don’t need you to set viewing guidelines for us. If we want our latest fix of Sex and the City, I don’t want to be told that it will rot my brain and that I should content myself with the latest Rita MacNeil special on CBC instead! That’s nightmare-inducing.

If you agree that the government should butt out and let us watch the programming we choose, then add your name to this online petition. Of course, it will accomplish absolutely nothing, but you’ll feel better. I know I did.

The leaders of the Canadian Alliance and the Conservatives signed a merger deal Thursday that would see the two parties folded into a single entity in time for an anticipated spring election.

[ . . . ]

The deal, which must be ratified by the respective party memberships by Dec. 12, represents a remarkable breakthrough following weeks of public acrimony during which negotiations appeared to be at a standstill over what were described as “philosophical differences.”

The merger would reunite the western-based and more socially conservative Alliance with Eastern Canada’s progressive Tory wing, ending a break that began with the birth of the Reform party in 1987.

I’m sorry to see Canada’s political landscape becoming more and more like the US, where the 2-party ironclad polarization exists, with no room for middle ground.

As long as the NDP exists, the Liberals won’t go too far left – they know elections are won comfortably in the middle. And the newly-formed Conservative party will probably shift further right.

But I dread the day when the Liberals swallow up the NDP, and we’re stuck voting for either-or on the two extremes.

Merger talks between the Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance have made a death-bed recovery and could result in an historic deal before the end of the week, sources said Wednesday.

I have to admit that every time I hear the phrase “unite the right”, it really makes me wonder . . . I mean, what exactly is right-wing about the Tory platform lately?

But the real question is, what will the resulting party be? Will it follow the Alliance on foreign policy and the Tories on domestic social issues, or vice-versa?

It kinda reminds me of the old joke of how in heaven, the Swiss run the banks, the French do the cooking, the Germans make the cars, and the the British run the police. In hell, the Swiss make the cars, the French run the banks, the Germans run the police, and the British do the cooking . . .

Elsie Wayne, the deputy leader of the Progressive Conservatives, said yesterday that homosexuals should “shut up” about their lifestyle and complained that Canadians should not have to tolerate gay pride parades, drag queens and same-sex marriages.

To me, the scariest part is all the comments on the National Post’s feedback page from people cheering on Elsie Wayne for her bigotry.

When will people learn that hatred masked in self-righteous morality is still hatred?

If the Liberals are all over the map on Iraq, it’s because they’ve failed to articulate a clear foreign policy since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. 

[ . . . ]

A new foreign policy must start from a dual premise: that our relationship with the United States is of pre-eminent importance and that maintaining global security in the 21st century means dealing firmly with rogue states and terrorist groups.

The Iraq issue is a difficult one because it turns on the credibility of the UN inspections process. How much faith do we have in the ability of inspectors to find Saddam’s concealed weapons?

So far, Canada has said international law and UN approval should govern military action against Iraq. But diplomacy can only go so far when a duplicitous regime is determined to flaunt its international obligations.

Soon, it may be time to forcibly disarm Saddam. And it will be time for Chrétien to check his moral compass and consider who his friends are.

He’s not the only one with an opinion. Progressive Conservative Party leader Joe Clark also wants the government off the fence, but on the other side:

“The prime minister is being dangerously ambiguous as to what Canada’s position would be,” Clark said.

“No one knows where Canada stands. Our allies don’t know, our citizens don’t know, (Chretien’s) own government doesn’t know.”

Canada should only support military action if it is sanctioned by the United Nations, Clark added

Well, that sure clears that up! And yes, it’s a strange political landscape when the Conservative party is telling the Liberal party to take a softer line on military action.

The good news is that the Bloc Quebecois is virtually disappearing from the scene in terms of popular support – although it is sure to keep winning several stronghold seats here in Quebec due to the riding system. But with the NDP and the Conservatives virtually neck-and-neck in second place, the prospect of a Liberal government and an NDP opposition are – needless to say – quite disconcerting. Not that I expect that to happen . . . but the trend is an unhappy one.

Bernard Lord, the fluently bilingual young premier of New Brunswick, MP John Herron and John Tory, a veteran party strategist from Toronto, all opted out of seeking the leadership. Each had attracted organizational and financial backing within the party.

Retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie has said thanks but no thanks to Tory recruiters. Vancouver businessman Rick Peterson, highly touted in the party as a young, bilingual B.C. voice, says he won’t make a leadership bid.

So far the only declared candidate is Heward (who?) Grafftey, a former cabinet minister.

It’s really too bad, because the Tory party was an important player on the Canadian political scene. The stigma of the Mulroney years aside, the party did have some good contributions to make, without slipping into the worst aspects of the right like the Alliance.

In the meantime, I think there’s a very big “help wanted” sign in the door of the party offices.