Segacs’s World I Know

Hugo Chavez is trying again to become dictator-for-life, after being narrowly defeated last time around. Venezuelans vote in a referendum this Sunday to get rid of term limits. Observers are pessimistic that the opposition will be able to pull off a miracle a second time, but polls are close enough to think that the “no” side at least has a fighting chance.

Meanwhile, without George W. Bush in office anymore, Chavez has redirected his efforts towards the world’s favourite scapegoat: Venezuela’s Jewish community. In the past few years, antisemitism in Venezuela has reached staggering levels, and there’s every indication that things are only going to get worse.

Reports out of Egypt that Hamas is going to agree to a long-term truce with Israel for Gaza.

Read between the lines. We have:

• The truce being contingent on the re-opening of border crossings. Translation: Hamas is low on weapons supplies, and wants a time-out with easy access to re-arm.
• An expiry date on the truce of 18 months, after which all bets are off and the whole song-and-dance will start all over from scratch.
• Hamas doesn’t refer to this as a “truce”, but as the Arabic word “hudna”, which has a completely different meaning. It’s got nothing to do with a desire for reconciliation; instead, it’s viewed as a tactical move.
• And of course, no deal for the release of Gilad Shalit.

But we all know what will happen. Hamas will announce the truce with great fanfare. It will then blatantly proceed to ignore and violate the truce daily. Israel will close its eyes as long as possible before finally having no choice but to respond. And then the world will universally condemn Israel for “violating the terms” of the truce.

I wonder if Meryl Yourish will launch another Shudna Watch in her blog?

Speak Hebrew? Think you can fix Israel’s political mess? Try your hand at coalition building with this fun tool.

(Hat tip: Yonah.)

With over 85% of votes counted, Tzipi Livni’s Kadima has a narrow lead over Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in today’s Israeli election.

Netanyahu had a commanding lead in the polls and the election looked like it was going to be a wash, but Livni fought back and now it’s almost too close to call.

Even if Kadima wins, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Livni will be the next Prime Minister. She had trouble forming a coalition government after Olmert resigned last year, and conditions now are even less favourable for Kadima than they were then.

Should be interesting times ahead as the post-election political jockeying begins.

The Israeli blogosphere has been up late following the events as they unfold, of course. Aussie Dave was liveblogging all day. Imshin thinks it’s gonna get ugly. And Allison posts her excellent analysis on Pajamas Media.

In a related story, Meryl Yourish has more on what’s passing for journalism at AP these days.

Freakin’ brilliant ad campaign by a Tel Aviv ad agency for Berlitz, using a play on words on the Obama campaign slogan:

Sometimes, the greatest ideas are the most obvious. (Hat tip: Matt).

The Habs looked like themselves again last night, handily beating the Penguins 4-2 and playing like they meant it.

About time. Hope they can keep it up.

Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party holds a commanding lead in the polls ahead of next week’s Israeli election, says he wants to form a unity government to deal with “unprecedented challenges”:

That’s election-speak, if anything. The game keeps changing and everyone feels like challenges are “unprecedented”, but a leader with some perspective ought to know that there’s nothing all that new about Israel facing an existential threat.

So far, it looks like Kadima’s reaction amounts to “thanks, but no thanks”. But again, what gets said during a camapign and what happens afterwads aren’t necessarily one and the same.

Further evidence of the increasing antagonism between Iran-backed Hamas and the Arab nations, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak publicly blamed Hamas for bloodshed in Gaza:

“How long will Arab blood continue to be spilled, only to hear those who admit to miscalculating the scope and scale of Israel’s response?” Mubarak asked in a speech marking Egypt’s national day to honor its police force.

Mubarak’s comment came in reference to remarks reportedly made by Hamas political leader Khaled Meshal, who admitted at the end of the three-week Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip that he did not anticipate the scope of Israel’s operation. Similar sentiments were expressed by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the end of the Second Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Mubarak went on to say that resistance movements must take responsibility over the welfare of their people. “The resistance must take into account victories and losses. It is responsible for the people, who in turn should settle the score [with the resistance] over the gains it has achieved, but also the sacrifices, the pain and the destruction it has caused,” he said.

The split in the Middle East is heating up, with the rival Palestinian factions serving as proxies, as usual:

The Egyptian president also hinted that Hamas and other militant Palestinian factions are serving the Iranian agenda in the region, especially since the fighting in Gaza ended. “They are trying to take advantage of Israeli aggression to force a new reality on the current Palestinian and Arab situation. A new reality that will alter the equation and reorganize the balance in favor of known regional powers and will serve their agenda,” Mubarak said. His comment came in response to Meshal’s recent calls for the establishment of an alternative Palestinian body, to rival Fatah in representing the Palestinian people.

It’s not much of a secret that there’s no love lost between Hamas and Egypt, which supports Fatah in the factional struggle. Mubarak is appealing to the EU and the international community to try and maintain the regional balance of power. But analysts speculate this could be costly for him at home, where the extremist Muslim Brotherhood (from which Hamas is an offshoot) could make political gains in Egypt at Mubarak’s expense. The peace between Israel and Egypt has always been chilly and fragile, and it’s looking shakier than ever.

As for Israel? As long as Palestinian factions gain popular support by being perceived as the toughest against Israel, Israeli citizens will continue to pay the price for this power struggle.

This is what happens when it snows in England.