The polls are only a few hours from opening. I won’t make any definitive number “predictions”, which, in my opinion, are worth about as much as polls (that is to say, not much) other than to say that I think that the polls are overrated. But I do have a few thoughts on how things are likely to turn out:
- Don’t count out the Liberals just yet: I know all the polls have Harper ahead, but the gap has been narrowing over the past week and the latest polling data is at least 48 hours old. Vote distribution is a matter of interpretation, and the people doing the interpreting are just as guilty of bandwagon-jumping as the next person. Furthermore, what people answer in polls always differs from what they actually do on election day at the ballot box. I’m not saying Harper will lose, I’m just saying it’s not a lock that he’ll win either. If tomorrow ushered in another Martin minority government, I wouldn’t be shocked.
- Predictions of a Tory breakthrough in Quebec are premature: On the same note, I’m simply not convinced of polls that have the Conservatives picking up multiple seats in Quebec. While their support numbers are higher than the Liberals, the Libs’ support is concentrated here in Montreal and the Tory support is spread out all over the province. One Tory seat? Maybe. None, most likely. Certainly not eight or ten. Won’t happen. Not this election.
- The Bloc will likely hold the balance of power: That’s the most likely scenario in a Tory minority government. The Liberals will rarely support the Conservatives, and the NDP almost never. If Harper wants to govern, he’ll need the Bloc. That won’t be good for Canadian unity no matter how they spin it. And if Harper refuses to deal with Duceppe, it will be a very short time until we’re right back at the polls.
- Paul Martin’s dusting off his resume: If the Tories win tomorrow, Paul Martin can kiss his political career goodbye. If nothing else, that would help the Liberals move past the sponsorship scandal and start with a clean slate, so to speak. As for Martin, what do ex-Prime Ministers do nowadays when they’re not testifying at federal enquiries? Anyone heard from Kim Campbell lately?
- There will be a January 24th: Whoever wins the election, life will go on. The sun will rise in the east. Canada probably won’t be all that different from what it is now.
- A little perspective: We can quibble all we want over sponsorship scandals, constitutional reform, healthcare or tax cuts, but remember that whoever wins will be democratically-elected, relatively moderate, and won’t be killing people in torture chambers. Even those of us holding our noses and voting for the “best of the worst” would do well to pause for a moment and appreciate the momentous significance of having the right to vote at all. Because I look around the world and I realize that it’s no small thing.
Vote early, vote often, vote your conscience. Stay tuned for liveblogging of the results tomorrow night.
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Just when you think you’ve hit rock bottom, there’s always further to fall.
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British MP and general wackjob George Galloway has come under fire from Israel for promising to donate any money he wins from his participation on the reality show “Big Brother” to a terrorist front organization:
The Israeli embassy last night became the latest critic of George Galloway after it denounced him for choosing Interpal as his nominated Big Brother charity, claiming it is a front for Palestinian terrorists. The organisation vehemently denies the charge.
[ . . . ]
However, UK ministers are coming under increased pressure to ban Interpal. In August 2003, the US administration claimed it was “a principal charity utilised to hide the flow of money to Hamas”, branded it a “specially designated terrorist” organisation and froze its assets in America.
Interpal was also banned by Israel in 1997.
Surprised? Nah, not really. Galloway’s true colours have been clear for a long time, and this is far from the most shocking thing he has done. Then again, raising money for terrorists who blow up innocent Israelis is probably considered a good thing in Galloway’s twisted mind.
(Hat tip: Tom).
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A suicide bombing in Tel Aviv, near the central bus station, has so far injured at least 10 people.
What is there to say that hasn’t already been said thousands of times already?
Update: The latest figures say 22 people were wounded. Ha’aretz is reporting that the Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility, but suggests that it’s a bit murky and that the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade (in other words, Fatah) may be behind the attack.
What really irks me is that media reports call this the “first bombing in a year”. Not true. It’s the first suicide bombing (though not the first attack) of the 2006 calendar year. But it’s been barely five weeks since a terrorist bomber struck in Netanya on December 5th, murdering five Israelis.
Say it with me now: What truce?
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Bruce over at Autonomous Source has compiled an amusing list of the fringe parties running in the election (via Damian Penny).
I still believe that all of these parties, no matter how small, ought to be permitted to participate in the debates. It would keep things interesting, anyhow.
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3 more rockets were fired by Palestinian terrorists at Israel from the Gaza Strip, in a “what else is new”? kind of story:
Overall, 13 Qassams were fired at Israel since Friday.
On Tuesday, an IDF system to detect Qassam fire and alert Sderot residents detected two rockets fired at Israel. The “Red Dawn” system also detected a rocket Monday evening. All Qassams landed in the western Negev causing no injuries or damage.
On Sunday two Qassams were fired at Israel, with one landing in southern Ashkelon and the other in open fields near Sderot. The IDF responded by unleashing a barrage of artillery rounds at fields in northern Gaza used by Palestinians to launch Qassams.
On Friday evening, four Qassam rockets landed near the Zikim and Yad Mordechai kibbutzim. No one was injured in the attack.
The latest wave of Qassam attacks started Friday morning with Palestinians firing two rockets at Israel. A bystander was treated for shock after one of the rockets landed within a distance of him. The second rocket was not found.
But, of course, the international media absolutely insists that there’s a truce.
What was that quote again? “None are so blind as those who will not see”?
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With friends like these, who needs enemies?
Martin was later forced on the defensive after a close ally — Canadian Auto Workers union President Buzz Hargrove — told reporters that Harper’s “view of the country is a separatist view” and would aid those who want independence for the French-speaking province of Quebec.
“I have big differences with Stephen Harper but I have never doubted his patriotism,” Martin told reporters, also dismissing Hargrove’s suggestion that people in Quebec vote for the separatists rather than Harper.
Hargrove’s endorsement of the Liberals is the kind of thing that would make me less inclined to vote for them, not more – even without his suggestion that Quebecers vote Bloc. Martin’s campaign is looking increasingly desperate.
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With a lead in the polls less than a week before the election, Stephen Harper can’t afford any missteps. And yet yesterday’s message, intentionally or unintentionally, seems to have been that he’s not scary.
Which, of course, just leads voters to focus on the topic of his potential scariness.
Didn’t anyone ever tell him that the surest way to get people to think something of you is to make a point of denying it?
Sure enough, today’s polls show a stagnation in the Tory lead. And whatever Harper thinks, it ain’t over till the fat lady starts warbling. As I’ve said all along, don’t count out the Liberals just yet.
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Stephen Colbert mock-saluted Paul Martin for “taking negative campaign ads to the next level”, based on the Liberal ad attacking Harper for being best friends with Bush.
Hey Paul: When even the American comedians are mocking your ads, they have to be really awful.
Then again, I suppose we should cut the Liberals some slack for how bad their campaign advertisements have been this time around. After all, their ad agencies all went and got themselves indicted in the sponsorship scandal.
(By the way, Colbert also had Andrew Sullivan on the show as his guest tonight. True to tongue-in-cheek form, his first question was “what is a blog?”)
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It’s freezing rain again. Ugh. January so far has sucked for skiing, and indications for this weekend are not good. Why can’t we have a good old-fashioned snowstorm for a change?
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