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Possible Liberal victory

The latest polls are predicting a possible Liberal victory in Monday’s election:

It is the second survey within 24 hours pointing to a big shift in public opinion in Canada’s mainly French-speaking province in favor of the Liberals.

The results show support for the Liberals up 8 percentage point from a mid-campaign CROP poll. Backing for the Parti Quebecois is down 6 points.

“Should these numbers hold until the election, the Liberals will certainly form the next government,” CROP Vice-President Claude Gauthier told the Globe and Mail. “We might even be witnessing a wave of support for the Liberals that could go up as high as 50 percent of the vote.”

All I can say is, don’t count your chickens before they hatch. The Liberals may well win the popular vote – in fact, it’s almost a guarantee that they will. But the PQ still has a very high chance of forming the government – even a majority government.

I’ve never understood why polls aren’t released by riding. That would be a much more accurate picture of what is likely to happen on election day.

{ 3 comments… add one }
  • Ikram Saeed 04.11.03, 6:51 PM

    I think it’s quite expensive to give a riding by riding breakdown. YoOu would need to poll a lot of peiople to get an accurate result (plus/minus 3%, 19 times out of 20).

    They could, however, break it down by region. And they do break it donw by language, which gives a pretty accurate picture.

  • James 04.11.03, 6:51 PM

    They don’t poll enough people to do anything by riding — the sample is usually just big enough that they think it’s demographically representative of Quebec in one way or another. Riding-by-riding poll results would require riding-by-riding polls, ie lots of phone calls.

  • Alex 04.11.03, 11:48 PM

    The only reason you need riding by riding poll is that the damn electoral ridings are shaped to favor the PQ with lots of francophone rural ridings and less ridings in place where their support base is weak.

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