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Cautious optimism?

The press is making a big deal of the comments that Mahmoud Abbas has made calling for an end to armed struggle by Palestinians:

“The uprising is a legitimate right of the people to express their rejection of the occupation by popular and social means,” Abbas said. “Using the weapons was harmful and has got to stop.”

[ . . . ]

“We, at this stage, are against the militarization of the intefadeh (uprising) because we want to negotiate. And because we want to negotiate, the atmosphere should be calm in preparation for political action,” Abbas said. “That’s why we have frankly called for . . . an end to the militarization of the intefadeh.”

Too good to be true? You betcha! Reverting to type, Abbas has probably calculated that calling for less dead innocent Israelis would make him very unpopular among the Palestinian people, and has pretty much reversed himself:

“I don’t want my comment on the demilitarization of the uprising to be misunderstood … All I meant is that we are in a phase that does not necessitate arms because we want to negotiate,” Abbas said in Riyadh where he ended an official visit Wednesday.

The problem with Abbas is that he’ll never be more than a puppet leader. It doesn’t matter what he truly believes, because he isn’t strong enough to carry it out. Barghouti’s withdrawal from the leadership race was probably little more than a calculation that right now, the world powers are clamouring for peace, so he figures he’ll set Abbas up to fail. Then someone – Barghouti, or perhaps a Hamas leadership – can step in once the people are screaming for arms again.

Yes, I’m a pessimist. But it’s hard to be much else when it comes to the Mideast.

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