Not much of a threat

12.15.05

European Union to Iran: stop denying the Holocaust, or we’ll denounce you.

I’m sure that threat has Ahmadinejad shaking in his boots.

The real question is whether Ahmadinejad is calculating and shrewd, or if he’s merely off his rocker.

Most of the time, rhetoric and provocation like this is done on purpose by despots looking to pick a fight for political gain, deflect attention away from their oppressive policies, or quell dissent at home, to name a few reasons. It’s entirely possible that Ahmadinejad is doing this in order to provoke the West to the point where someone takes action, and all hell breaks loose. Strange as this may sound, this would actually be the preferable of the two options. If Ahmadinejad is crazy like a fox, as opposed to merely crazy, then he probably wouldn’t actually unleash nuclear weapons on Israel – he’d just talk about it in order to stir up hatred. As I’ve said repeatedly, the very last thing that most of the dictators of the Arab world want is for Israel to disappear off the map. Because without Israel as the single unifying factor, they would simply attack each other (well, more so than they already do).

However, from what I’ve seen so far, it’s entirely possible that Ahmadinejad is just as crazy as he seems. His fanatical hatred of Israel might not be calculated, but real. In which case, the world has real cause to worry, because he might not care if Iran is wiped off the map as long as he can take Israel down with him. This is where the prospect of a nuclear Iran becomes very, very scary.

So which is it? Column A? Column B? A little of both? I don’t really think we have the option of waiting around to find out. But then, who’s left in the world to actually do anything to stop Ahmadinejad, before it’s too late?

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

1 DaninVan 12.16.05 at 4:18 AM

You missed the 3rd possibility and it’s the most frightening. What if he (and the rest of the clerics)actually believe that he’s destined to be the one to destroy Israel and that Allah wants him to do whatever it is that he plans on doing? That kind of absolute devotion to their religion means that they don’t need to take moral or, in fact, ANY personal responsibility for the outcome.
What will be, will be.

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2 segacs 12.16.05 at 4:29 AM

By my definition, Dan, that would fall into option B.

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3 DaninVan 12.16.05 at 7:17 AM

NoNoNo….that’s absolutely the most dangerous way of approaching it!
If you equate Faith with insanity then we’re really screwed. (I’m not sure that I’d argue against that, mind you…)

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4 segacs 12.16.05 at 1:33 PM

Belief in G-d or some sort of higher power is faith. Wanting to destory an entire people and nation is insanity – perhaps given credence by faith… but don’t call it faith.

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5 John Palubiski 12.16.05 at 3:25 PM

Faith can somtimes appear to render people insane, but insanity is the utter abdication of human responsability and reason.

Faith, though, ultimately serves to improve human reason as well as the human condition; if properly observed and practised it can act as a restraint on excess.

However, thinking you’re the “12th Madhi” with a divine mission to destroy the very fountainhead of the Abrahamic tradition, in accordance with Allah’s will, is a symptom of something else altogether.

And, yes, it IS frightening

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6 DaninVan 12.16.05 at 8:48 PM

Sari; it certainly wouldn’t be the first OR the last time it’s been tried. Well, actually it might well be the last time…

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