Segacs’s World I Know

I can’t resist one more hockey post before the lockout kills next season. Yesterday the NHL awards were handed out. So join me in booing the league’s decision to award the Calder Trophy to Andrew Raycroft instead of to the clearly more-deserving Michael Ryder.

From Allison, more evidence that the IDF anti-terror operations and the security fence are doing their jobs:

Five suicide bombings have been thwarted since the beginning of the month, and 60 since the beginning of the year, security officials said Thursday. They were unable to divulge details, as the suspects are still being questioned by the Shin Bet.

There are two approaches to dealing with terrorism: make the terrorists want to stop, or make them unable to follow through with their plans.

Plan A has been tried over and over again. When the Oslo accords were signed, people thought, well, this is it. The terrorists hate us because they want their own country, the logic went. And now that they’re on the road to getting what they want, they’ll leave us alone. I already quoted Imshin’s perceptive words on the misconception that the entire West seems to have about the true motives of the terrorist groups:

Don’t worry, everyone said, the Palestinian people will soon be having such a ball, they’ll just love their independence and newfound affluence so much, that it will have to work. So I didn’t worry. More fool me.

Because it didn’t work, did it? Those bastards stole all the money and what they didn’t they spent on arms and on teaching hatred. Terrorist organizations flourished. No independence for the Palestinians. No affluence. (And no peace for us). Conned by their leaders. Again. And so were we.

The problem is that this dispute isn’t about land, or territory, or independence or even money. The Palestinians could have had a state a long time ago if that’s what they really wanted. It’s not about all the logical, rational things that Westerners assume must be at the root of every dispute. It’s not about poverty, or suffering, or lack of education; most of the terrorists are middle-class and educated.

No. It’s about hatred. It’s about deep-set, ingrained hatred that would take centuries to eradicate, if at all. With that kind of hatred, traditional negotiation goes nowhere. Every time Israel extends her hand, it gets slapped. Every offer is met with more attacks. Every concession is nothing but a sign of weakness. Hamas doesn’t want a Palestinian state; they merely want no Jewish one. Beyond that, they couldn’t care less. It’s right there in black and white in their charter. And yet nobody wants to believe them.

Plan A is the ultimate goal of course. But it’s too long-term. Too difficult to achieve. Too seemingly impossible.

And in the meantime, how to stop innocent people from dying? That’s where Plan B comes in. Build a fence around them, cut off their sources of funding, put up roadblocks and security checks and take out their leaders in military strikes and raid and arrest as many terrorists as possible. It’s ugly, but, as Allison says, it seems to be having at least somewhat of an effect.

The terrorists may not hate us any less, but let’s make it as difficult as possible for them to translate their hatred into action. They’ll keep trying but they’ll succeed a lot less, and that can save countless lives.

Muslim women’s groups are outraged at a Canadian court ruling allowing “Canadianized Sharia” in Ontario:

Then the province of Ontario quietly approved its use. Under the 1991 Arbitration Act, sharia-based marriage, divorce and family tribunals run by the Islamic Institute of Civil Justice are expected to begin later this year. The move has so horrified many Muslim women that they’re vowing to stop the tribunals before they start.

“We’ve had a flood of e-mails from people, asking `How can we help?'” says Alia Hogben, president of the Canadian Council of Muslim Women, whose 900 members come from a variety of Islamic sects.

They were outraged that Muslim women could be coerced into taking part in sharia tribunals or face family and community ostracism — or worse.

Why, they asked, should these women be treated differently from other Canadian women?

“When you come to Canada, you are a human being with full rights,” says Jonathan Schrieder, a Toronto civil litigation lawyer. Allowing sharia here — even a “Canadianized” version, as its proponents claim — “will subject Muslim women to a huge injustice.”

Indeed.

I don’t necessarily have a problem with religious arbitration being used voluntarily by members of a community, when it doesn’t contravene secular law. For example, Montreal – like many cities – has a Jewish beit din to decide matters of Jewish law, and members of the community can agree to subject themselves to its jurisdiction.

But what we’re talking about here isn’t voluntary arbitration: it’s an attempt to relegate Muslim women to second-class citizen status against their will. Even though the Ontario court ruling specifies that all parties must “voluntarily” submit themselves to the process, this is certain not to work because the very nature of Shari’a law makes the whole process open to unbelievable amount of abuse. No Canadian should stand for this.

Via LGF and Burnside, who are all over this one.

It’s Grand Prix Weekend once again in Montreal. Despite scares that the race wouldn’t come here anymore, it’s back, and so are the glitterati that follow the racing scene.

A walk downtown will be full of eye candy – both machine and human – for anyone seeking the excitement and fanfare of the weekend that turns downtown Montreal into Monte Carlo for a brief moment in time. For most of us, the main event has little to do with the race itself, and is more about celebrity-sighting on Crescent or St-Laurent.

No Jacques Villeneuve? No problem. The fans will turn out anyway. It’s hard not to get caught up in Grand Prix fever. Mainly because, around here, it’s the official signal that summer has begun.

There’s been a lot of talk about Paul Martin’s ego. But now it looks like Stephen Harper is going on an ego trip of his own, by publicly talking about a Conservative Majority government:

Stephen Harper has begun to talk publicly about forming a majority government, suggesting for the first time Thursday that his Conservatives would deliver a Throne Speech in the fall followed by a budget emphasizing tax cuts, military spending and increased transfer payments to the provinces for health care.

Even with recent poll results showing a slim lead for the Conservatives, the chances of them forming even a minority government are slim. A majority government is so far out of the realm of possibility, it’s completely ridiculous:

An Ipsos-Reid poll, published in Thursday’s Globe and Mail, showed the Conservatives in a virtual tie with the Liberals, but nowhere near a majority government. The party would need a major breakthrough in Quebec or in Liberal strongholds such as Toronto, Montreal and parts of Vancouver to govern without another party’s support.

Besides which, it’s my sense that the Tory popularity has peaked, and that by next week the poll numbers will show some of the effects of the Liberals’ latest round of attack ads. Negative campaigning is low, but it also tends to have its desired effect – hence the reason so many politicians resort to mud-slinging.

The only way the Conservatives could govern would be by allying with the Bloc Quebecois. And that would be a move that would be met with the rejection of most Canadians. The two parties are so far apart on virtually every issue, it is hard to imagine them finding enough common ground for even a strategic alliance.

Advice to Mr. Harper: if you want Canadians to take you seriously, stick to reality and forget dreamland.

Public hearings are being held on the subject of potentially scrapping the CEGEP system in Quebec, and replacing it with an extra year of high school.

Me to them: Hands off!

CEGEP is the best two years of many students’ entire academic careers. I’m far from the only person to say this.

For pre-university students, it’s a chance to adapt to a collegial environment before the pressure begins of choosing a major and a career path. For students in technical programs, it’s a chance to get a free education that will lead to a solid career path. For everyone, it’s a great social and academic environment, free of the trappings of the typical high school.

If a student switches programs in CEGEP, it costs them maybe an extra semester and a few textbooks. Switching programs in university can mean up to a year or more of extra tuition costs. CEGEP provides an opportunity to try out a few different things, during the truly formative years of one’s life, and find the path that suits them best before investing in a university degree in the subject.

CEGEP is one of the few things that Quebec actually got right. Work on funding education better, not messing up the system.

An apparent planned suicide attack in Paris was met with a typical reaction in France: Denial:

“One cannot draw from this information any indication about the preparation of a possible attack in Paris,” a spokesman for the Interior Ministry said.

A French police source said no signs of a planned attack in Paris or elsewhere in France had been uncovered.

After all, France couldn’t possibly be a victim of a terror attack, right? Not after all the cozying up the country has been doing to terrorist leaders and governments. Not after its outspoken opposition to US policies, particularly in Iraq. France must be immune, right?

Never mind the law banning religious symbols – including hijabs – in schools. Never mind the Algerian terror groups who hate France. Never mind that France, until recently, was the victim of more attempted terrorism attacks than Israel (though it was carefully kept under wraps).

After all, France tried to tell us that if we just attempt to “understand” the terorists instead of fight them, we’ll all just get along. An attempted suicide attack? Quel horreur!

Paris wants to ban SUVs.

Why does this not surprise me? A Civic owner myself, I don’t have any particular use for SUVs. They’re big, they’re clunky, they use a ton of gas. Not exactly my cup of tea.

But something tells me that banning them – especially in Europe, where most people already sensibly drive smaller cars than they do here in North America – is less about practicality and more about politics. Somehow, SUVs have joined McDonald’s and, well, Israel, as symbols of the hated capitalist-American-imperialist ideology that the socialists love to hate. Especially in France. After all, why else pick on SUVs and not, say, minivans or commercial vehicles?

Our own election is taking some twists and turns. Damian Penny calculates that the SES tracking results showing the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals for the first time means that the CP could actually win the election:

But here’s the thing: Quebec no longer sends 73 Liberal MPs to Ottawa. The Bloc has won most of Quebec’s seats ever since the 1993 election, leaving the Liberals with around 35 Quebec MPs at most. The Bloc is far ahead of the Liberals this time around, and if Martin wins 25 Quebec seats, I think he’ll be lucky.

That means the Conservatives would have to win 25 more seats than the Liberals in the rest of the country – hard, but not that hard. The Liberals will likely win most of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, but the Conservatives will win all but one or two of the 28 seats in Alberta, thereby cancelling out that advantage. SES now puts the Conservatives ten points ahead in Ontario, ahead by 6 in B.C. and ahead by 7 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

If these numbers hold, I think we’d looking at a Conservative minority government. As for a majority, alas, Sari is right – you can’t realistically do it without picking up at least a few Quebec seats.

The thing about polls, as I’ve been arguing, is that they don’t reflect political reality in Canada because they aren’t added up by riding. The party that wins the popular vote doesn’t always win the election. We almost take the system for granted at this point.

I still don’t think that this is Harper’s election. The last time a Conservative government won in Canada (during the Mulroney years), it had the backing of considerable political forces in Quebec. Since then, the Liberals’ dwindling support in the rest of Canada might very well go to the Conservatives, but the Bloc will be picking up the support here in Quebec.

Polls are also notoriously inaccurate. People may feel no pressure to say one thing on the phone to a pollster, but when they actually go vote where it counts they can do another. With the slips lately from the Harper camp on divisive issues like abortion, some people may be getting scared. The public is fed up with the Libs, but I simply don’t see the Conservatives getting elected in Canada without more than perhaps a single seat won in Quebec – which is the most they can realistically hope for here. No, I think this is a polling blip and that we will end up with a Liberal government, albeit a minority one.

The party that will gain the most? Sadly, the NDP. Their swing votes will suddenly matter in parliament in the case of a minority government, and their agenda given much more attention than usual. Good news? Hardly.

Which of us is right? We’ll have to see in three weeks, I suppose.