Segacs's World I Know

Posts Tagged ‘hamas’

I give this a week. Ten days, tops.

Rival Palestinian groups said they reached an agreement Wednesday on reuniting their governments in the West Bank and Gaza after years of bitter infighting that weakened them politically and caused the deaths of hundreds in violent clashes and crackdowns since. Even as the tentative agreement revived hopes among Palestinians that they might be able to form a unified front, unity between the rival groups Fatah and Hamas appeared unlikely to jump start negotiations with Israel for an independent Palestinian state.

There’s no way that Hamas and Fatah will be able to avoid going at one another.

Update: Why this deal is bad news for Israel.

Good guest op-ed in the Gazette by Frida Ghitis: “No one much cares about what they endure, unless it can be blamed on Israel“:

Palestinians are indeed victims of mistreatment. But you won’t hear much about what they endure, unless someone can pin the blame directly on Israel. Conditions in Gaza, for example, have made for a tough existence there. But human-rights activists have turned a blind eye to the systematic assault on individual freedom that has beset the population ever since the Islamic militant movement Hamas took over in 2005.

Read the whole thing.

The Palestinian people, anyway. This according to a new poll conducted by Ramallah-based Near East Consulting that surveyed 880 Palestinians. Overall support for Fatah is at 48%, while Hamas is down to 11% support:

“There is widespread support for Fatah,” Dr. Jamil Rabah, director of Near East Consulting in the PA, told The Media Line. “They support the Fatah political process and don’t think Hamas is on the right path politically.” 

[ . . . ]

“It doesn’t surprise me that the sentiments of the people are in this direction,” Abdallah Abdallah, chairman of the Palestinian Legislative Council’s Political Committee, told The Media Line. “Over a year has passed since the Gaza war and still people are living in the streets. People want those responsible for this to go and I think the sentiments of the people after three or more years of this is that it’s about time that those who are not capable of running the affairs of the people – go.”

Hamas swept to power in Gaza first by exploiting people’s frustration with the corruption of the Fatah administration, and then through a violent show of force. Popular support for suicide bombings and attacks on Israeli civilians was high, and Hamas was able to claim to the world (though maybe not with an altogether straight face) that it was a “legitimate” political party. Now, after promising to “crush” Israel and succeeding in doing little more than crushing Gaza, it seems that the Hamas option has lost its shiny lustre to a lot of disillusioned Palestinians.

But it would be a mistake to take this polling data at face value. People vote out of ideology, sure, but also out of self-interest. And in the Palestinian territories, where hatred is a powerful weapon that can be stirred up almost at will to redirect people’s frustration, these things can shift quickly. There will be those who will back the strongest horse, those who go looking for the options that are even more extremist than Hamas, and those who will get disgusted with voting altogether in a place where democracy doesn’t exactly have deep roots.

We’ve seen this before. Support for a political approach rises among Palestinians when there appears to be no threat of any progress actually being made. The minute this threat arises – whether at Camp David in 2000, or after Oslo or Wye – the people balk and something triggers another wave of violence. And if it’s not Hamas out in front, then support will go towards whoever is shouting the loudest, shooting the most, and inspiring the most fear.

And what the poll won’t tell you is that the bigger picture in the Middle East is also a factor – maybe the factor. As Iran battles Saudi Arabia for regional dominance, Hamas is engaged in something of a proxy war against Iran-sponsored Hezbollah, jockeying for power using the gruesome metric of dead Israeli civilians as credentials.

But, for the moment at least, Hamas’s popular support is way down. And if the Palestinians actually had real elections, this might actually have implications.

Some good news, for a change:

Gaza’s Hamas rulers have suffered back-to-back setbacks with Israel’s successful test of a rocket shield and Egypt’s push to block smuggling tunnels.

The Iron Dome rocket defence system, reportedly to be deployed near Gaza in May, would deprive Hamas of its main leverage against Israel – the threat of rocket salvos. Egypt’s underground anti-tunnel barrier of steel beams, now under construction, could eventually cut Hamas’ supply of cash and weapons.

The looming double squeeze is poised to limit Hamas’ options and change the rules of engagement on Gaza’s volatile, blockaded borders.

A deal for the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was said to be “imminent”, but now seems to have stalled. The stumbling block? Hamas wants the release of some of its most heinous murderers in exchange:

Hamas officials refused to say which names were holding up the deal. But the -based Arabic daily al-Hayat said they included Ibrahim Hamed, the former commander of Hamas’ military wing in the West Bank and mastermind of a Jerusalem suicide bombing that killed 11 people in 2002, and Abdullah Barghouti, a mastermind of several suicide bombings serving several dozen life sentences.

Hamas appears to be demanding the release of Abbas Sayid as well, a planner of the Park Hotel suicide bombing on Seder Night 2002 that killed 30 people, according to lawyer Jawad Immawi, a senior official in the Palestinian Prisoners Affairs ministry, which employs many of the lawyers who represent high-level inmates.

That’s right, they mean the terrorist bastards behind attacks like this one. This is the Hamas that the world’s apologists keeps insisting is a “legitimate government” and should be dealt with.

The fact that Israel is even considering such a deal – the fact that it had already agreed to release hundreds of other terrorists from prison – speaks only to the value that it puts on Shalit’s life and the life of every one of its citizens. This, of course, is exactly what Hamas exploits as a weakness. And by negotiating with Hamas, Israel plays straight into its hands.

And of course, it’s tough for Hamas to complain that an Israeli life and a Palestinian life are valued unequally (by the media, by the West, etc.) when they insist on the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for one IDF soldier.

Hamas will claim this deal – if it goes through – as a major victory, will use it to bolster its standing versus Fatah, and will argue that it proves that violence works. And really, with deals like these, it’s hard to argue with that logic. How many more innocent lives will fall victim to the newly-released terrorists? How many prisoners will Israel need to swap for the next kidnapped soldier?

I want nothing more than for Gilad Shalit to return home, safe and unharmed. But at what price?

• The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall was commemorated with free outdoor concerts and celebrations this weekend.
• The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the Obama healthcare reform bill in a narrow vote – a crucial first step towards a complete overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system. But, as the New York Times reports, it came at a heavy price, with pandering to the anti-abortion movement. And the toughest fight may still be yet to come.
• Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, frustrated by his “inability to make peace” (read: his inability to achieve victory over rival Hamas), plans to quit. True to form, he blames Israel for everything. Who’s surprised?
• It’s a witch-hunt, as Nidal Malik Hasan, the gunman allegedly responsible for shooting up a U.S. military base in Fort Hood is being investigated for terrorist links. Never mind that he was American-born, had served in the army for years as a psychiatrist, and seemed to have psychological problems. Nope, all it takes is for Americans to hear the word “Muslim” and they think they have it all figured out. Because everything’s always black or white, with no shades of grey, right? *Sigh*.
• Quebec is being lauded for having the fastest H1N1 vaccine program. Really? Is it possible that, as disorganized as our program has been, everyone else’s is actually worse?
• The Habs fell below .500 with last night’s 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay. Not only that, but thanks to a certain friend, I will no longer be able to watch Jacques Martin without thinking of The Count on Sesame Street.

Reports out of Egypt that Hamas is going to agree to a long-term truce with Israel for Gaza.

Read between the lines. We have:

• The truce being contingent on the re-opening of border crossings. Translation: Hamas is low on weapons supplies, and wants a time-out with easy access to re-arm.
• An expiry date on the truce of 18 months, after which all bets are off and the whole song-and-dance will start all over from scratch.
• Hamas doesn’t refer to this as a “truce”, but as the Arabic word “hudna”, which has a completely different meaning. It’s got nothing to do with a desire for reconciliation; instead, it’s viewed as a tactical move.
• And of course, no deal for the release of Gilad Shalit.

But we all know what will happen. Hamas will announce the truce with great fanfare. It will then blatantly proceed to ignore and violate the truce daily. Israel will close its eyes as long as possible before finally having no choice but to respond. And then the world will universally condemn Israel for “violating the terms” of the truce.

I wonder if Meryl Yourish will launch another Shudna Watch in her blog?

Further evidence of the increasing antagonism between Iran-backed Hamas and the Arab nations, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak publicly blamed Hamas for bloodshed in Gaza:

“How long will Arab blood continue to be spilled, only to hear those who admit to miscalculating the scope and scale of Israel’s response?” Mubarak asked in a speech marking Egypt’s national day to honor its police force.

Mubarak’s comment came in reference to remarks reportedly made by Hamas political leader Khaled Meshal, who admitted at the end of the three-week Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip that he did not anticipate the scope of Israel’s operation. Similar sentiments were expressed by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the end of the Second Lebanon War between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Mubarak went on to say that resistance movements must take responsibility over the welfare of their people. “The resistance must take into account victories and losses. It is responsible for the people, who in turn should settle the score [with the resistance] over the gains it has achieved, but also the sacrifices, the pain and the destruction it has caused,” he said.

The split in the Middle East is heating up, with the rival Palestinian factions serving as proxies, as usual:

The Egyptian president also hinted that Hamas and other militant Palestinian factions are serving the Iranian agenda in the region, especially since the fighting in Gaza ended. “They are trying to take advantage of Israeli aggression to force a new reality on the current Palestinian and Arab situation. A new reality that will alter the equation and reorganize the balance in favor of known regional powers and will serve their agenda,” Mubarak said. His comment came in response to Meshal’s recent calls for the establishment of an alternative Palestinian body, to rival Fatah in representing the Palestinian people.

It’s not much of a secret that there’s no love lost between Hamas and Egypt, which supports Fatah in the factional struggle. Mubarak is appealing to the EU and the international community to try and maintain the regional balance of power. But analysts speculate this could be costly for him at home, where the extremist Muslim Brotherhood (from which Hamas is an offshoot) could make political gains in Egypt at Mubarak’s expense. The peace between Israel and Egypt has always been chilly and fragile, and it’s looking shakier than ever.

As for Israel? As long as Palestinian factions gain popular support by being perceived as the toughest against Israel, Israeli citizens will continue to pay the price for this power struggle.

Hamas acknowledges Israel exists:

Hamas acknowledges the existence of Israel but formal recognition by the group will only be considered when a Palestinian state has been created, the movement’s leader Khaled Meshaal said on Wednesday.

Softening a previous refusal to accept the Jewish state’s existence, Meshaal said Israel was a “reality.”

“There will remain a state called Israel, this is a matter of fact,” Meshaal said in an interview in the Syrian capital, where he lives in exile.

“The problem is not that there is an entity called Israel,” said Meshaal. “The problem is that the Palestinian state is non-existent.”

Before anyone gets too excited, let’s keep in mind that Hamas has refused to change its charter calling for Israel’s destruction, has refused to formally recognize Israel despite Western pressure, and continues to call for the so-called “right of return” of Palestinian refugees that would, in effect, destroy Israel through demographics. Not to mention that it continues to launch rockets and suicide attacks into Israel at every opportunity.

Still, this soundbyte is a baby step, even despite the convoluted logic that only a terrorist could come up with:

“As a Palestinian today I speak of a Palestinian and Arab demand for a state on 1967 borders. It is true that in reality there will be an entity or state called Israel on the rest of Palestinian land,” said Meshaal.

“This is a reality but I won’t deal with it in terms of recognizing or admitting it,” he added.

Um, yeah.

Could it be? Is this actually a voice of reason – a litany of hard truth – a call for self-examination… coming from Hamas?

“When you walk in the streets of Gaza City, you cannot but close your eyes because of what you see there: unimaginable chaos, careless policemen, young men carrying guns and strutting with pride and families receiving condolences for their dead in the middle of the street.”

This is how Ghazi Hamad, spokesman for the Hamas-controlled Palestinian Authority government and a former newspaper editor, described the situation in the Gaza Strip in an article he published on Sunday on some Palestinian news Web sites.

The article, the first of its kind by a senior Hamas official, also questioned the effectiveness of the Kassam rocket attacks and noted that since Israel evacuated the Gaza Strip, the situation there has deteriorated on all levels. It holds the armed groups responsible for the crisis and calls on them to reconsider their tactics and to stop blaming Israel for their mistakes.

“Gaza is suffering under the yoke of anarchy and the swords of thugs,” Hamad wrote. “I remember the day when Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip and closed the gates behind. Then, Palestinians across the political spectrum took to the streets to celebrate what many of us regarded as the Israeli defeat or retreat. We heard a lot about a promising future in the Gaza Strip and about turning the area into a trade and industrial zone.”

Hamad said the “culture of life” that prevailed in the Strip has since been replaced with a nightmare. “Life became a nightmare and an intolerable burden,” he said. “Today I ask myself a daring and frightening question: ‘Why did the occupation return to Gaza?’ The normal reply: ‘The occupation is the reason.’”

Dismissing Israel’s responsibility for the growing state of anarchy and lawlessness in the Gaza Strip, Hamad said it was time for the Palestinians to embark on a soul-searching process to see where they erred.

“We’re always afraid to talk about our mistakes,” he added. “We’re used to blaming our mistakes on others. What is the relationship between the chaos, anarchy, lawlessness, indiscriminate murders, theft of land, family rivalries, transgression on public lands and unorganized traffic and the occupation? We are still trapped by the mentality of conspiracy theories – one that has limited our capability to think.”

Unusually frank words from any Palestinian official. But considering the source, this is pretty astounding stuff.

Some are taking this at face value, calling it a “flying pigs moment”.

But I’m a natural born cynic, and when something seems suspicious, it’s usually because it is. Frankly, I’m not sure what to make of this. I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Something tells me that this is going to turn out to be a part of a new powerplay game between Hamas and Fatah, and that, as many suspect, Hamas is looking to throw a monkey wrench into the U.S.’s policy of backing Fatah by confounding Bush’s view that Fatah are the guys in the white hats and Hamas are the guys in the black hats.

If, however, Hamad was really being candid here, I hope for his sake that he has a lot of bodyguards.