Looks like we’re going to be heading to the polls on March 26th, as Charest has apparently decided to play the timing card for all it is worth and take advantage of a bump in the polls for the Liberals against a PQ that – under André Boisclair – seems to have lost its way.
Nevertheless, this won’t be an easy campaign for Charest to win. The Liberals start every campaign with a built-in handicap due to riding distribution, and Charest has never been exactly loved as a premier; his temporary popularity surge is mainly due to the unpopularity of rival Boisclair. Of course, this also means that Boisclair has the lead in the expectations game for the moment, since Charest has a reputation as a strong campaigner, and expectations pretty much couldn’t be any lower for Bosiclair right now if he were a slug.
If Charest wins a second term, Boisclair is sure to be replaced. Under new leadership, the PQ will surely regroup and rebuild, using a likely Federal election in the next year or so to help increase support for sovereignty and lay the groundwork for a decisive election victory in five years followed by a snap referendum. Of course, that’s a long way away, which makes it highly unpredictable.
On the other hand, if Boisclair wins, it will likely be with a weak finish and a murky mandate for sovereignty. Under those circumstances, he may not even call a referendum. Even if he takes a chance and calls one, in today’s political climate, it’s highly unlikely to pass. Ironically, a PQ victory may actually help give another blow to Quebec nationalism, which might be the best-case scenario.
(On the other hand, we’d have André Boisclair as our premier).
Too many ifs at this point. But the gloves are about to come off, so stay tuned for the body blows and the knockout punches. It’s game time.