Meanwhile in Lebanon…

The miracle is happening quietly: Syrian troops are withdrawing from Lebanon after 29 years of occupation.

Analysis is as varied as Mideast political opinions tend to be. And as of right now, there are more questions than answers: Is this a genuine move by Syria to recognize Lebanon’s independence, or simply a media move designed to mask the fact that Assad still plans to pull Lebanon’s political strings from afar? Will Lebanon – a country with a rocky history, to put it mildly – elect a free and democratic government? Or will competing factions pit against one another, resulting in more bloodshed? Will a democratic Lebanon be claimed by the Bush team as a victory for its policy of spreading democracy in the Mideast? Or will an unholy mess result? Where does Hezbollah fit in with all of this?

And what about Israel? Even as the Lebanon Daily Star reports that Israelis are eyeing a peace deal with Lebanon, more realistic analysis from Ha’aretz puts the prospects for this at dim to nonexistent – at least for now:

Nevertheless, Lebanon is still committed to a common policy with Syria when it comes to the regional peace process. Lebanese opposition leaders have also declared that they have no intention of dismantling either the political or the economic cooperation between the countries, and they certainly have no plans to be seen to be in a hurry to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Of the zillion different competing factions in Lebanon, the one thing they have in common is their hatred of Israel. In fact, it might be the only common base on which they will be able to work to mend and re-forge a national identity. It’s easy to see, in the context of a story like Lebanon’s, why it’s so convenient for people to unite around their one commonality: hatred with Israel. It’s either that or destroy one another. (And they’ve done plenty of both over the years).

A lot will depend on what happens in the coming months. But regardless, I don’t think Israelis will be taking shopping trips to Beirut anytime soon.